Boston College By The Numbers After the Virginia Tech Game
Offense
24.7 points per game (12th in the ACC, 93rd in FBS); 355 total yards per game (12th, 103rd), 5.25 yards per play (12th, 98th); 30:23 time of possession (5th, 49th)
We’ll start with some high-level, big-picture stats. As a scoring offense, BC is not performing very well. They’re near the bottom of the conference and at the bottom-third of FBS teams. Among the 65 Power-Five teams, they’re 50th in points per game. Naturally, a big part of this has been the poor quarterback play during ACC games. Against conference opponents, they have averaged only 11.6 points per game on offense. Whether by game or by play, their yardage stats are not much better, both ranking 12 in the conference. With all that being said, a strong run game has helped BC control the tempo of games this season, as they rank fifth in the conference in time of possession and 49th in the country.
193.3 passing yards per game (10th, 103rd); 161.7 rushing yards per game (9th, 64th)
The issues with BC’s passing offense are well-documented: catastrophic performances against Temple and Syracuse skew these statistics, perhaps somewhat unfairly. Even with Phil Jurkovec back in the lineup against Virginia Tech, the “throw game” was not humming along consistently. But as Jurkovec practices more and his hand continues to get healthier, increased amounts of passing yards should follow.
During the Virginia Tech game, Eric MacLain made a very poignant comment about how the BC offense changed without Jurkovec. He discussed how BC had to go back to the run game, leaning on Pat Garwo and a solid offensive line to control the tempo of games. He opined that if Jurkovec hadn’t gotten injured, BC might not have developed a complementary running game. However, as the passing game continued to founder, the running game struggled as well, with defenses stacking the box as they did not fear BC’s quarterbacks.
Now, as Jurkovec returns the lineup, he finds a retooled offensive line that played very well against the Hokies and a strong running game led by Pat Garwo. The Eagles’ offense was far from perfect last week. But with a diverse, balanced attack, fans should expect these statistics to improve as BC angles for a bowl game.
41.6% 3rd down conversion rate (8th, t-54th); 82.5% red-zone conversion rate (8th, t-75th); 1.3 turnovers per game (10th, 68th)
Despite BC’s general struggles on offense, they’ve been pretty solid at taking care of the ball. A big reason why BC has been so good on third downs is that their strong running game puts them in very manageable third-down situations. When the running backs can pick up seven or eight yards on the first two downs, it makes converting much easier. As Jurkovec reacclimates to this offense, expect the Eagles to remain relatively run-heavy for the next few weeks, especially now that they can use him as a running threat in his own right.
The red-zone version rate is slightly below average, but this is also partially explained by the lack of a passing game. With quarterbacks like Dennis Grosel and Emmett Morehead in the lineup, it’s harder to convert in the red zone because coverages can be much tighter because there is less area to defend. This causes issues for a guy like Grosel as he does not have the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows; it also can confuse a true freshman like Morehead, who might see everything as being covered. However, Jurkovec should help assuage these issues, as he can fit the ball into tight windows and create with his legs as he did against the Hokies.
Frankly, the fact that BC’s turnovers per game stat is only 1.3 is pretty surprising, given the quarterback play over the previous few weeks. The Eagles got a bit lucky this week, as their only turnover was negated almost immediately. Against Syracuse, they fumbled the ball four times but lost none of them. But seven turnovers in the previous three games was not acceptable. Even with Jurkovec under center, the Eagles cannot afford to turn the ball over in the coming weeks.
-0.85 Offensive EPA per game (12th, 104th); -0.019 Offensive EPA per play (12th, 108th); -0.045 Passing EPA (12th, 111th); -0.001 Rushing EPA (9th, 79th)
Now we’ll get into some more advanced stats. The stat we’ll discuss most is expected points added (EPA). This link does a great job of explaining the history and inner machinations of EPA. But I’ll give a quick rundown here. Based on the historical data of the NFL, you can measure or predict how many points a team is expected to score based on their field position and down and distance. Therefore, you can also predict how many expected points any play adds (or subtracts) by looking at the difference in expected points between the two plays. EPA is probably the most important and widely used statistic in the modern analytics movement.
With that out of the way, let’s get into BC’s statistics. Based on these advanced metrics, the Eagles’ offense is not good. They are among the worst in the conference and even in the country, especially throwing the ball. To put these numbers into context, even when BC is running the ball, on average, they lose 0.001 expected points every play. They lose even more when they throw the ball. With only three games left in the season, it will be interesting to track how much this number changes with Jurkovec as the quarterback again.
Defense
18.8 points allowed per game (3rd in the ACC, 18th in FBS); 334.6 total yards allowed per game (4th, 30th); 5.6 yards per play allowed (8th, 72nd)
Whereas Boston College is struggling statistically on offense, they are playing exceptionally well on defense. Despite lacking a consistent pass rush, the Eagles are among the best teams against both the run and pass. They would probably rank even better if they weren’t in the same conference as Clemson and NC State, two other elite defenses. Even with the success this defense is already experiencing, they should continue to improve with a more consistent offense, as we saw against Virginia Tech. BC is still allowing 5.6 yards per play which is a little below average; this is probably explained by a few explosive plays given up (see Louisville and Syracuse games) and the fact that this defense is not on the field that much.
162.8 passing yards allowed per game (1st, 6th); 171.8 rushing yards allowed per game (8th, 67th)
Jeff Hafley and Tem Lukabu’s influence is most apparent in BC’s secondary. Even after losing Brandon Sebastian against Louisville, the Eagles have strung together a few excellent performances. Granted, they have not faced the best quarterbacks in recent weeks. Regardless, earning the top spot in the conference and a top-ten ranking nationally is nothing to sneeze at. Against the run, the story is somewhat different. However, as I said after the Syracuse game, these statistics are slightly skewed by a handful of explosive plays. Even with those included, BC is still just slightly below average against the run. In the coming weeks, BC will face offenses that feature mobile quarterbacks. Hafley and Lukabu will have their work cut out for them facing Jeff Sims, Jordan Travis, and the Wake Forest offense.
30.5% 3rd down conversion rate allowed (2nd; 9th); 73.9% red zone defense stop rate (5th, t-19th) 1.6 turnovers per game (2nd, 37th)
As good as Boston College has been from a yardage standpoint, they’ve been even better in high-leverage/conversion opportunities. They’re top-10 on third downs and top-20 in the red zone. They also have created the second-most turnovers in the conference. I think the unit that deserves the most credit for this success is the secondary. The cornerbacks are playing extremely well, with Josh DeBerry being the x-factor that can do anything and everything. Jaiden Woodbey has come on in recent weeks, and Jason Maitre was having an excellent season until he went down with an injury.
With regards to injuries, BC has weathered them well, but it remains concerning. Mike Palmer filled in nicely this week, and JT Thompson has been competent in relief of Brandon Sebastian. Hopefully, Sebastian will get back in the lineup soon, but BC is now dangerously thin at safety. Deon Jones, Jahmin Muse, and now Jason Maitre are all out for the season, leaving Palmer and Woodbey as the starters and not much experience behind them. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hafley and Azaar Abdul-Rahim give DeBerry some looks at safety, especially if/when Sebastian comes back.
3.08 Defensive EPA per game (6th, 48th); 0.055 Defensive EPA per play (5th, 49th); 0.127 Passing EPA (7th, 63rd); 0.001 Rushing EPA (5th, 49th)
As well as BC’s defense has played, the more advanced numbers are not as kind. The numbers and rankings are remarkably consistent across the board, and they indicated that’s BC’s difference is just slightly above average. Interestingly, BC’s rushing EPA on offense and defense are equidistant from each other on opposite sides of zero; furthermore, they’re each on the wrong side of zero.
The one area that BC has been truly excellent in is preventing explosive plays in the passing game. Aside from the long touchdown from NC State, the BC defense has done a great job at forcing offenses to drive the length of the field, which has helped their conversion numbers. This was a bigger problem in the Adazzio era, but it still feels great that the issue is mostly fixed.