2022 BYU Football Schedule: Likely Wins, Likely Losses, & Tossups
Last week, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his preseason SP+ college football rankings - BYU came in at no. 23. BYU's 2022 opponents ranked as high as #8 (Notre Dame) and as low as #94 (USF) in the SP+ rankings.
Using SP+ as our guide, we'll take a way-too-early look at the games on BYU's 2022 schedule that are likely wins, likely losses, and likely tossups. To be clear, preseason rankings are far form perfect and should not be treated as gospel. They do, however, serve as a directional measure of BYU's strength schedule in 2022.
Let's start with likely wins. Four our purposes, any team ranked 20 spots or lower than the Cougars in the SP+ rankings will be favored to win.
Likely Wins
@ USF - Saturday Sep. 3
BYU kicks off the 2022 season in South Florida against the USF Bulls. BYU beat USF at home last season 35-27 in a game that didn't feel as close as the final score might suggest. BYU led 21-0 after the first quarter and 28-6 at the half. The Bulls slowly clawed back into the game, but they ran out of time before having a chance to complete the comeback.
2021 Record: 2-10
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #94
USF should be a much better team in 2022 than they were in 2021 thanks in large part to the return of quarterback Timmy McClain. Historically speaking, BYU has struggled to win games in the state of Florida, but the Cougars will be favored in this game.
vs Wyoming - Saturday Sep. 24
Fewer teams were hurt more by the transfer portal than Wyoming. Following a 7-6 campaign in 2021, the Cowboys lost their starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver to the transfer portal. Wyoming comes to Provo in 2022 to reignite an old conference rivalry.
2021 Record: 7-6
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #85
BYU will be favored in this game.
vs Utah State - Friday Sep. 30
Utah State was one of the best turnaround stories of the 2021 college football season. The Aggies went 11-3 season which included a Mountain West championship and a bowl victory over Oregon State. The Aggies rank no. 113 in returning production ahead of the 2022 season.
2021 Record: 11-3
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #91
BYU will likely be favored to win its third consecutive game over the Aggies in September.
@ Liberty - Saturday Oct. 22
For the first time in program history, BYU will take on Liberty in Virginia. These two teams faced off for the first time in 2019 when the Cougars took down the Flames 31-24. BYU third-string quarterback Baylor Romney started for the Cougars in replacement of injured quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall.
2021 Record: 8-5
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #69
The Flames will need to replace multi-year starter Malik Willis who declared for the NFL Draft following the 2021 season.
vs East Carolina - Saturday Oct. 22
East Carolina returns most of its production from a 2021 squad that went 7-5 and earned an invitation to the Military Bowl.
2021 Record: 7-5
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: 81
vs Dixie State - Saturday Nov. 19
BYU will be heavily favored over Dixie State.
2021 Record: 1-10
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: NA
@ Stanford - Saturday Nov. 26
For the first time since 2004, BYU will take on Stanford. The Cardinal are coming off a disappointing 2021 season in which they lost their last seven games of the regular season.
2021 Record: 3-9
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #68
Stanford is the lone P5 team in the "likely win" category.
Total likely wins: 7
Next, let's look at likely losses. Any team ranked 15 spots or higher than the Cougars in the FPI rankings will be considered an odds-on loss.
Likely Losses
vs Notre Dame - Saturday Oct. 8
A late addition to the 2022 schedule, BYU will take on Notre Dame in a neutral site game in Las Vegas.
2021 Record: 11-2
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #8
Notre Dame has been one of the most consistent programs in the country over the last ten seasons. ESPN's Bill Connelly said "BYU is merely the slightest of underdogs against the Irish" according to the early SP+ rankings.
Total likely losses: 1
Let's look at the tossup games on BYU's schedule. On paper, these games could be the difference between a six-win season or a ten-win season. By process of elimination, these are games where BYU's opponents ranked within either 15 spots above BYU or 20 spots below BYU in the SP+ rankings.
Tossups
vs Baylor - Saturday Sep. 10
A preview of a future conference matchup, BYU takes on Baylor for the second consecutive season. The Cougars will have the opportunity to avenge a lopsided loss they suffered at the hands of Baylor last October. The Bears would go on to win the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl last season.
2021 Record: 12-2
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #30
Baylor ranks 98th in returning production ahead of the 2022 season. BYU will have to show marked improvement in the trenches on defense to give itself a chance to beat Baylor in September.
@ Oregon - Saturday Sep. 17
The Ducks beat Ohio State on the road last September and climbed into the top five of the AP Top 25. Then the Ducks regressed throughout the season before losing three of their final four games by an average of 24.6 points per game.
2021 Record: 10-4
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #32
Oregon has the talent on its roster to be one of the best teams out West. Will first-year head coach Dan Lanning be able to put the pieces together by September when BYU comes to town? The Ducks will have already traveled to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs in week one.
vs Arkansas - Saturday Oct. 15
Like Utah State, Arkansas was one of the best turnaround stories of the 2021 season.
2021 Record: 9-4
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #28
The Razorbacks will be led by returning quarterback KJ Jefferson. Jefferson threw for 2,676 yards and 21 touchdowns last season.
@ Boise State - Saturday Nov. 5
BYU will have an opportunity to avenge its home loss against Boise State last season. The Cougars were ranked in the top 10 when the Broncos upset them on the road.
2021 Record: 7-5
2022 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #43
Total tossups: 4
If you have been keeping track, that is seven likely wins, only one likely loss, and four tossups. If BYU can win the games they will be favored to win, and win 2 "tossup" games, an nine-win season is achievable. If they can do all that, and turn a "likely loss" into a win or win the majority of the tossup games, the 2022 season could be a special one.
It is important to remember that preseason rankings will change dramatically after a few weeks of games. For example, before BYU blew out Navy in 2020, ESPN FPI gave BYU only a 28% chance to win. If those two teams would have played towards the end of the season, FPI likely would have given BYU an ~85% chance to win.
