A BYU Perspective: Four Burning Questions About the Latest Round of College Football Realignment
On Thursday, Jon Wilner reported that USC and UCLA "are planning to leave for the Big Ten as early as 2024." The report, which has been confirmed by various national college football writers, send shockwaves around the college football landscape. Today, we look at x burning questions about the latest round of college football realignment from a BYU perspective.
1. Who raids who?
Without USC and UCLA in the fold, the PAC-12 would be down to 10 schools. The Big 12, once Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC, will be appropriately named with 12 schools.
The Big Ten and SEC will have 16 schools apiece and the ACC will have 14 schools. Therefore, it makes sense for either the Big 12 or the PAC-12 to raid the other conference and expand to 14 or even 16. In this scenario, who would raid who? The conference that strikes first could deliver a knockout punch to the other conference, taking the total number of power conferences from five to four.
Oregon would be the most powerful brand remaining between the Big 12 and the PAC-12. In this scenario, therefore, the Ducks would hold a lot of power.
In Wilner's article, he mentions the possibility of a merger between the Big 12 and the PAC-12:
"But the future of the conference is suddenly in serious doubt — a potential merger with the Big 12 could be on the table, or the remaining schools could go their separate ways." - Jon Wilner
According to Wilner, the Big 12 reached out to the PAC-12 regarding a merger or partnership after Texas and Oklahoma left for the SEC last year. The PAC-12 declined, and now the PAC-12 might have to come groveling back to the Big 12 less than one year later.
A conference of 22 seems way too big, but what if the SEC or Big Ten expands beyond 16? More on that below.
2. What if the SEC or Big Ten expands beyond 16?
This is where things would really get out of hand.
If the SEC or Big Ten expanded beyond 16, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina are candidates to join the sports' two most powerful conferences according to Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger.
If this happens, it would bust the college football landscape wide open. If Oregon leaves the PAC-12, the Big 12 would be the more stable conference and therefore in a better position to absorb the PAC-12 in this writer's opinion.
Another variable in this scenario, if the ACC lost some of its top brands, would it try to recruit Big 12 schools like West Virginia and Oklahoma State? West Virginia, for example, has ties to the ACC via the old Big East conference.
3. Could BYU be stuck in the middle?
Could there be a scenario where the PAC-12 tries to recruit BYU into the fold after years of denying the Cougars entry? Zach Barnett of Football Scoop thinks so. At this point in the process, however, this is purely speculation.
"What do you think they're thinking at BYU today?" Barnett wrote in a recent article about the newest wave of realignment. "The Cougars were stoked for life in the Big 12 until around 11:30 local time, when Jon Wilner's tweet went live. BYU had always been persona non grata to the Pac-12 due to ideological reasons, but can that league be so picky now without the LA schools? No one other school west of the Rockies even approaches BYU's brand power and football prowess. If presented an opportunity to play in the same conference as Utah again and not travel to Morgantown and Cincinnati on the regular, what do you think the Cougars choose?"
Geographically and competitively, BYU has always been a fit for the PAC-12. In every other category, however, BYU and the PAC-12 are usually on opposite ends of the spectrum. It's difficult to imagine a scenario where the PAC-12 tries to recruit BYU along with other Big 12 schools, but it became a possibility on Thursday.
4. Is BYU safe?
By far the most important question of the day: is BYU safe in the current college football landscape? Last September, BYU (finally) secured its spot in a Power Five league. Less than one year later, the future of all leagues outside the SEC and Big Ten is uncertain.
With that being said, BYU won't be officially in the clear until this wave of realignment is officially over. Important weeks lie ahead for the BYU athletic department.
