FPI Predicts BYU-Oregon, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

Following an overtime victory over Baylor, ESPN FPI updated its win projection for BYU in 2022. Originally, FPI expected BYU to go 7-5. After Saturday, BYU is expected to go 9.1-2.9 in 2022. Below is FPI's BYU-Oregon prediction, along with the updated win probabilities for each of BYU's remaining games.

September 17th - @ Oregon Ducks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 45.7%

Original win probability: 25.9%

BYU's win probability against went from 26% to 52% after week one. Oregon's FPI rating received a boost after it scored 70 points against Eastern Washington, dropping BYU's win probability dropped to 45.7%.

Originally, this was the second most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to FPI.

September 24th - vs Wyoming Cowboys

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 95.4%

Original win probability: 86.6%

FPI is very bullish on BYU's chances against Wyoming. The Cougars will host the Cowboys later this month in a battle of former conference foes.

September 29th - vs Utah State Aggies

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 96.2%

Original win probability: 82.0%

BYU will host in-state rival Utah State on a Thursday night. The Aggies are off to a very bad start to the 2022 season.

October 8th - vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (neutral site in Las Vegas)

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 40.7%

Original win probability: 18.4%

Still the most difficult game on BYU's schedule according to ESPN FPI. BYU will travel to Las Vegas to take on Notre Dame in Allegiant Stadium. Notre Dame put together a very respectable effort against Ohio State in week one only to lose to Marshall in embarrassing fashion.

October 15th - vs Arkansas Razorbacks

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 55.6%

Original win probability: 46.4%

Arkansas is off to a 2-0 start and looking very formidable. This could potentially be a battle of two top 25 teams next month..

October 22nd - @ Liberty Flames

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 67.9%

Original win probability: 58.1%

Originally a tossup according to FPI, BYU's win probability now sits at 68%. BYU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks when it travels across the country to take on Liberty.

October 28th - vs East Carolina Pirates

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 84.2%

Original win probability: 80.0%

East Carolina was a missed field goal away from upsetting no. 13 NC State in week one.

November 5th - @ Boise State Broncos

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 61.9%

Original win probability: 43.0%

Boise State looked sluggish against Oregon State in week one. They beat a below average New Mexico team on Friday. As a result, FPI now likes BYU to beat Boise State in November.

November 19th - vs Utah Tech Trailblazers

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 99.6%

Original win probability: 99.7%

Utah Tech, formerly known as Dixie State, travels to Provo in late November.

November 26th - @ Stanford Cardinal

BYU's FPI Win Probability: 67.2%

Original win probability: 52.9%

A regular season finale at Stanford will wrap up BYU's 2022 slate. Stanford lost by two scores to USC on Saturday.

Facebook - @BYUSportsIllustrated

Twitter - @SI_BYU and Casey Lundquist at @casey_lundquist

Instagram - @BYU_SI