Predicting BYU's Ranking in the AP Poll After Week Five

A new AP poll comes out on Sunday

Coming into the 2022 season, BYU ranked no. 25 in the preseason AP poll. The Cougars have stayed in the top 25 throughout the season, climbing to as high as no. 12 before losing to Oregon. Last week, BYU stayed at no. 19 after a win over Wyoming. Today, BYU has the potential to crack the top 15 again after multiple ranked teams lost this weekend.

Opportunities to move up

Ranked teams were dropping like flies this weekend. Nine ranked teams lost:

1. Kentucky (7)
2. NC State (10)
3. Washington (15)
4. Baylor (16)
5. Texas A&M (17)
6. Oklahoma (18)
7. Arkansas (20)
8. Minnesota (21)
9. Florida State (23)

This leaves plenty of opportunities to rise in the rankings. Surely Baylor, Washington, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma will fall below BYU in the rankings. NC State is another team that could slide below the Cougars depending on what the voters thought of their performance at Clemson.

Risk of being leapfrogged

The risk of being leapfrogged was partially minimized this week since three teams ranked 20-23 lost. Like always, however, there are still a few candidates to leapfrog BYU this week:

No. 22 Wake Forest, who beat no. 23 Florida State, is the most likely candidate to leapfrog BYU this week. Wake Forest is an overtime loss to Clemson away from being undefeated. Kansas, Mississippi State, UCLA and TCU are undefeated and will likely be ranked this week. Either team could potentially make a big leap into the top 20.

The Ceiling

In the best-case scenario, BYU would surpass no. 10 NC State, no. 15 Washington, no. 16 Baylor, no. 17 Texas A&M, and no. 18 Oklahoma. Additionally, Wake Forest, TCU, and Kansas would be ranked behind the Cougars. 

Best-case scenario ranking: 14

The Floor

In the worst-case scenario, no. 10 NC State would stay ranked ahead of BYU following its loss to Clemson, and two of the leapfrog candidates would surpass BYU in the polls.

Worst-case scenario ranking: 17

The Prediction

I think either NC State will remain ranked ahead of BYU or the Cougars will be leapfrogged by one team, putting the Cougars at no. 15.

Most likely ranking: 15

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