Six Reasons to Feel Confident that No. 16 BYU will Beat Notre Dame
It's only natural to feel a little nervous before your team plays a big game, especially with the way BYU has looked the last three weeks. Perhaps you are a fan like me, looking for any reason to believe that your team can come out on top. Lucky for you, I've done the heavy lifting for you. Here are six reasons to feel confident as BYU takes on the most legendary program in college football.
1. Notre Dame is not explosive
The Irish do not have the most explosive of offenses, ranking 77th in yards per play. A clear weak spot for the Notre Dame offense seems to be pushing the ball down the field with quarterback Drew Pyne, who is completing just 35% of his throws of 10 yards or more. The passing attack largely runs through two players, as TE Michael Mayer and WR Lorenzo Styles are the recipients of over half of all targets, yards, and touchdowns. Both will be difficult to contain, but if the Cougars can do just that, the Irish will struggle to move the ball through the air.
2. ND has struggled to find a running game
BYU has struggled running the ball this year, right? What if I told you that BYU averages a full yard per carry more than Notre Dame? There are actually quite a few similarities between the two rushing attacks. Notre Dame has two very capable running backs in Chris Tyree and Audric Estime, who are used similarly as Lopini Katoa and Chris Brooks at BYU.
Estime is the primary back and resembles a bowling ball as much as he does a human being while Tyree is more of a dual-threat weapon who doubles as the Irish’s third leading receiver. Despite the two-headed monster, though, it’s taken a while to get the run game going in South Bend. Notre Dame averaged just 117 yards through their first three games, but found a groove during their most recent contest, running for 287 against North Carolina. However, it’s too soon to tell if the Irish figured something out, or if they just played the defense that gave up 40 points in a quarter to App State.
For all the complaints raised about BYU' run defense so far this year, they haven’t been as bad against the run as you’d think. The Cougars are currently in the top half of college football this year, giving up 3.97 yards per carry (0.4 yards better than a certain local team who shall not be named). They were gashed by a top 10 rush offense at Oregon, but Notre Dame is not Oregon.
3. BYU has the offensive line to match Notre Dame’s strength
Notre Dame’s defense has made their living pressuring the quarterback. The Irish have forced hurries on 46% of drop backs the last two weeks despite blitzing just 20% of the time. The good news for BYU is that they are the second best pass blocking line in college football according to PFF. Keeping Jaren Hall upright will be vital to BYU’s success. Hall is one of the best passers in the country when kept clean this season, completing 76% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt. Keeping Isaiah Foskey and co. under control is easier said than done, but there may not be a team in college football more capable of doing it than BYU.
4. BYU can win on third down
For my money, Notre Dame’s last two games serve as kind of a best and worst-case scenario for BYU. They could be Cal, giving up 297 yards and 24 points, or they could be North Carolina, giving up 576 yards and 45 points. The difference between the two games is what happened on third down. The Irish converted 8-14 against UNC but just 3-12 against Cal. Notre Dame was held to just 23% through their first 3 games and averaged 18 points as a result. BYU has been decent on third down this season, giving up 35.7% through 5 games. If BYU can hold Notre Dame to their season average, you have to like their chances.
5. BYU’s wide receivers are better than Notre Dame’s secondary
For what Notre Dames offense lacks in big passing plays, it’s made up by their defense. Starting corners Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart are giving up a combined 15 yards per catch this season, with the secondary as a whole giving up 7 yards per attempt. Adding to the good news for BYU, Puka Nacua practiced this week and will likely play, meaning BYU could have its top receivers together for the first time all season. He rejoins what is already one of the more productive units in the country, leaving Jaren Hall poised to light up the Las Vegas night.
6. BYU has Jaren Hall
Speaking of Jaren Hall, BYU has him and Notre Dame does not. In games as tight on paper as this one, the edge typically goes to the team with the better quarterback. If the game really comes down to needing a late-game score, would you rather have Drew Pyne or Jaren Hall? As for me and my house, we choose Jaren Hall.
Prediction
There is not really an outcome that would surprise me this week, but I expect a defensive slog. Until BYU’s offense demonstrates that they can run the football effectively, I have to assume they won’t. While that is troublesome for BYU, they still have the best player on the field in Jaren Hall. Hall has a productive night spreading the ball around to seven different players.
Notre Dame will try to run it down BYU’s throat from the jump, and we will find out very quickly which BYU team came to play. The Cougars will be much more aggressive on defense this week because they have to, and it pays off. BYU’s linebackers show up in a big way after a rocky last three weeks and hold the Irish to under 150 yards rushing and under 40% on third down.
It comes down to a late game drive, where Jaren Hall leads the Cougars to glory with a late touchdown.
BYU 24 – 21 ND
