SP+ Predicts No. 21 BYU vs No. 9 Baylor

SP+ expects a close game between no. 9 Baylor and no. 21 BYU

Author:
Casey Lundquist
Publish date:
Sep 6, 2022 4:05 PM EDT

BYU and Baylor, who were ranked no. 21 and no. 9 respectively in the latest AP poll , will battle on Saturday night in a preview of future Big 12 foes. Baylor will be the first top 10 team BYU has hosted at home in the independence era.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released the SP+ predictions for week two. Each week, Connelly unveils score predictions for every game involving an FBS team. On Tuesday, Connelly cemented his prediction for BYU-Baylor.

SP+ gives BYU an 53% chance to beat Baylor with an expected final score of 26-25. At 53% win probability, SP+ is higher on the Cougars' chances than ESPN FPI. FPI gives BYU just a 42.4% chance to beat Baylor. The difference between the two predictions is likely the weighted value of returning production in the SP+ formula. Returning production, where BYU ranks first in the country, is one of the three pillars of the SP+ formula.

Nobody is higher on BYU than the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. The Cougars are 3.5-point favorites against Baylor according to betting lines and the over/under is set at 53.5, meaning the implied projected final score is 27-24 in favor of BYU.

BYU and Baylor kick off at 10:15 PM EST on ESPN. Below are other notable SP+ predictions for this week.