What the Analytics are Saying About BYU vs East Carolina

Author:
Casey Lundquist
Publish date:
Oct 27, 2022 10:31 AM EDT

Following a blowout loss to Liberty, BYU is searching for a bounce-back win against East Carolina. Today, we look at what some of the analytics are saying about BYU's chances to beat the Pirates at home.

SP+

SP+, a predictive model managed by ESPN's Bill Connelly, expects a close game between BYU and East Carolina. SP+ gives BYU a 45% chance to win with an expected final score of 31-28 in favor of the Pirates.

ESPN FPI

FPI is slightly more optimistic about BYU's chances than SP+. FPI gives BYU a 56% chance to win on Friday night.

Odds and Betting Line

As of this writing, BYU is favored three points and the money line as at BYU -160. At -160, the implied probability of a BYU win is 61.4%.

CFB Graphs

Parker from CFB Graphs does an excellent job covering college football from an analytical perspective. His model gives BYU a 47% chance to win with an expected final score of 35-34. Most interesting, is his preview of BYU's defense against ECU's offense.

BYU's defensive struggles have been well documented after the Cougars allowed 52 points against the Razorbacks and 41 points against Liberty. Over those two games, BYU's defense forced just two punts. ECU has been one of the more successful passing offenses in the country. The Pirates rank 30th in passing success rates while BYU's defense ranks 119th in success defending the pass. On the other hand, BYU's offense faces a similarly advantageous matchup in the passing game. BYU's offense ranks 26th in passing success rate and ECU's defense ranks 110 in success defending the pass.

Facebook - @CougsDaily

Twitter - @Cougs_Daily and Casey Lundquist at @casey_lundquist

Instagram - @cougs_daily