Best & Worst-Case Scenarios for BYU Football Recruiting Rankings
Recruiting rankings are always a hot topic on signing day. Unfortunately for BYU fans, BYU's 2021 recruiting class will be smaller than normal which has a negative impact on recruiting rankings. The question is, how low could BYU drop in the recruiting rankings with such a small class? Today, let's take a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for BYU in the 2021 recruiting rankings.
For these scenarios, we'll assume that BYU signs ~15 players as part of the 2021 recruiting class.
First, let's imagine a scenario where BYU lands all their highly-rated targets. This would include guys like Raider Damuni, Logan Fano, Kingsley Suamataia, Kimo Makaneole, Isaac Vaha, Bentley Redden, and Enoka Migao. Is that possible? Theoretically, sure. Will that happen? No, it won't. There are around 100 schools competing for these players and signing all of them won't happen. However, it's possible that BYU signs a handful of these guys and creates a very solid recruiting class. BYU's best-case recruiting class would be ranked approximately 67th in the 247 composite recruiting rankings.
A recruiting class in the high 60's wouldn't make national headlines but it would be worth celebrating for a few reasons:
- The average star rating of this recruiting class would be the highest since 2010.
- BYU would jump 13 spots in the recruiting rankings (compared to 2020) despite signing half the number of players.
- This would represent arguably the best in-state recruiting class under Kalani Sitake.
While this scenario is nearly impossible, it does help us understand the ceiling of BYU's small recruiting class.
There are multiple scenarios (which are probably the most likely) where BYU brings in some great players but still drops in the recruiting rankings in 2021. The size of BYU's recruiting class opens the door to the lowest recruiting class since class rankings started in 2001. Jasen Ah You and Jack Damuni hope to improve BYU's recruiting rankings. However, they are facing an uphill battle in their first recruiting cycle.
For example, let's say BYU lands Damuni and Redden but misses on the rest on the guys listed above. If BYU misses on those guys and fills the open spots with players that match historical averages (average rating around .82 247 composite rating), BYU's recruiting class could drop as low as 119th in the country.
It's probably irresponsible (who am I kidding, it is) to predict a class ranking in June. But if I had to make a guess, I would guess BYU's recruiting class finishes in the low 90's in 2021. While that ranking would be far from encouraging for BYU fans, I think BYU could walk away with some very solid players in this scenario. With such a small class, the average rating of the class is probably a better measure of success than class ranking. There are a few scenarios where BYU signs a class with the best average rating since 2016 and still falls to the high 80's or low 90's in class ranking.
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