BYU Football: Boise State Preview and Prediction
BYU-Boise state is the kind of rivalry is that makes you romantic about college football. The two schools have built their respective brands through the decades by being America’s favorite Goliath slayers, and the battles between them have lived up to the billing. 6 of the 10 contests have come down to the final minute of play, with 4 of those being decided on the game’s final play. But even with all the classics in this rivalry, there has never been more at stake than what is hangs in the balance on Friday night in a game that has NY6 and potentially even College football playoff implications.
Why Boise State Could Win
The Broncos push the ball down the field in bunches. Boise only faced 4 third downs on 49 plays against Air Force a week ago, and have put up 40+ points in each of their first two games. The Boise State offense has 2 of everything, including at quarterback. Starter Hank Bachmeier had a strong 3 touchdown outing in week one, only to have backup Jack Sears put up a 3 touchdown game of his own the following week. Bachmeier’s status for the BYU game is uncertain, but whoever takes the field for the first offensive series will be capable of putting up big numbers.
Both QBs rely heavily on WR Khalil Shakir, who is responsible for 29% of Boise State’s offensive output, and averages a ridiculous 14.7 yards per touch. The Broncos will be most effective if they can get Shakir in space against a BYU defense that has struggled, at times, containing explosive skill position players.
Perhaps most importantly, the game is being played in Boise, where the Cougars have never won, and where the Broncos have an astounding 123-7 record over the last two decades. It will be interesting to see if 1,000 fans in attendance will create much of a home field advantage, but one thing is clear: There is some serious voodoo stuff going on with the “Smurf Turf.”
Zach Wilson (left) and Khalil Shakir (right) are bonafide superstars, but who will shine brighter on Friday night in Boise?
Why BYU Could Win
BYU is only the second road favorite to come to Boise in a decade, but there is good reason. BYU has been unstoppable on offense, but it’s not for lack of opponent effort. Navy sold out to stop the BYU passing attack, and the Cougars gashed them for 301 yards on the ground. Houston, in turn, stacked the box, only to be torched by Heisman contender Zach Wilson for 400 through the air. Want to double team WR Gunner Romney? You will give up 100+ yards to Dax Milne. Try an take away both? TE Isaac Rex catches two touchdowns. It really is pick your poison with this BYU offense.
BYU’s key to victory today, though, will be the run game. The Boise State defense lacks push up front, ranking 84th, 88th, and 108th in sacks, tackles for loss, and rush defense respectively. The story of the BYU season has been QB Zach Wilson, and rightfully so, but the nation should be ready to learn the name Tyler Allgeier, who averages more yards per carry than the likes of Travis Etienne and Najee Harris. Expect a big night from him.
Prediction
If you like explosive offense, this is your game. Boise State and BYU both average more than 7.5 yards per play, good enough for top 5 nationally. This game, however will be won in the trenches, and that is where BYU has the edge. BYU’s offensive line is one of the best in the country, and they face a Boise State defense who will be without star defensive lineman Demitri Washington. On the flip side of the ball, Boise lacks depth with only one RB with more than 5 carries and two WRs with more than 4 catches on the year. BYU will test that depth by holding Shakir to under 80 total yards and forcing someone else to beat them.
Expect a fun one in Boise. Sears/Bachmeier will throw for 250+ and BYU will have a 300-200 game of their own. The game will be tight, but ultimately Zach Wilson and the BYU offensive front will prove too much in the second half.
BYU 38-28 Boise State