How BYU Football Stacks Up in College Football Power Index After 8-0 Start

Casey Lundquist

Every college football season, ESPN updates a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories. As we wait for BYU's next game against North Alabama, let's see how BYU stacks up in the updated power index after an 8-0 start.


Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN's CFB Power Index page.


Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

BYU: 15.5 meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by 15.5 points on a neutral field. 15.5 puts BYU in the top-15 of college football - ESPN FPI ranks BYU at #12.

Projected Win/Loss Record

Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.

BYU: 9.9-0.1. BYU is expected to go 10-0 according to ESPN FPI's latest projections. Those numbers are subject to change throughout the season, especially if BYU adds another game or two to the schedule.

Win Out %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games.

BYU: 88.8%. BYU has an 88.8% chance to go undefeated against their current schedule. According to the power index, that is the best mark in the country by a large margin. There are seven teams ranked in front of BYU right now in the AP poll. According to the index, here are their respective odds of winning out this season:

  1. Alabama: 55%
  2. Notre Dame: 17.5%
  3. Ohio State: 54%
  4. Clemson: 50%
  5. Texas A&M: 18.4%
  6. Florida: 13.1%
  7. Cincinnati: 19.3%

6 Wins %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.

BYU: 100.0%. BYU has already surpassed six games this season.

Playoff %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.

BYU: 23.4%. This number has grown throughout the year. BYU ranks #7 in the country in this category. Only Clemson, Alabama, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame are more likely to make the playoff according to ESPN FPI.

Make National Championship %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 5.4% When was the last time BYU had a non-zero chance of playing in the national championship?

Win National Championship %

Definition: Chances of winning the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 1.3%. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

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