BYU is 4-1 and ranked no. 19 in the country. The program is trending in the right direction as it prepares for life in the Big 12. BYU has a few extra days to prepare for Notre Dame next week, which gives us a few days to talk about recruiting and BYU's 2023 recruiting class.
Recruiting rankings are always a hot topic on signing day. BYU has been slowly building a very good signing class, one that has the potential to be the best of the Kalani Sitake era. Where could BYU's 2023 class rank come signing day? That's the question that we'll attempt to answer today. Let's take a look at the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, and the most-likely scenario for BYU's 2023 recruiting class.
First, let's imagine a scenario where BYU lands all their highly-rated top targets. This would include their existing commits along with uncommitted guys like Spencer Fano and Smith Snowden. Then, BYU could add a highly-rated skill player late in the recruiting cycle. For this scenario, we'll use Florida running back Kendrick Raphael as an example. Raphael was planning on taking an official visit before he committed to Iowa. Raphael has backed off that commitment and has been in touch with many schools, including BYU.
BYU isn't the favorite to land Raphael, but he represents a few players that BYU is still recruiting that could impact BYU's recruiting ranking. BYU is recruiting highly-rated wide receiver targets like Malachi Riley and Tre Spivey, for example. There could also be more targets that emerge before signing day. In the best-case scenarios, we'll also assume that BYU will land two more low three-star recruits.
Adding those players to the 2023 would put BYU's recruiting class anywhere from 35-45 in the recruiting rankings. A class ranked that high would be the highest since 2010 and it would be a fantastic start to recruiting in the Big 12 era.
This isn't the most-likely scenario, but it's not pipe dream either. BYU is a few commitments away from a highly-ranked class.
In the worst-case scenario, we'll assume that BYU misses out on priority targets Smith Snowden and Spencer Fano. We'll also assume that the highly-rated skill players sign elsewhere and BYU only adds a pair of low three-star recruits to replace them. That would put BYU's recruiting class in the 65-75 range.
That would still be a successful recruiting class from an average rating perspective, but it wouldn't be the recruiting class that BYU fans have hoped for over the last 12 months. In the opinion of this author, this scenario is less likely than the aforementioned best-case scenario.
I don't think BYU is done bringing in high-profile recruits in this class. Getting at least two more highly-touted recruits is more likely than not, in my opinion. For the most-likely scenario, we'll assume two more four-star commitments and two more low three-star commitments. This would put BYU's recruiting class in the 45-55 range. A recruiting class ranked that high with only 19 commitments would be considered a very successful class for BYU. With a class of 20 or less, the average rating of the class is probably a better measure of success than class ranking. In this scenario, BYU's average star rating would be the highest since 2010.