Pac-12 Basketball Notes: Is Washington State Really That Good?
We address three questions to start this week's Pac-12 notebook:
---Question No. 1: Is Washington State that good, or is it the beneficiary of the schedule?
Who do you think has the longest winning streak in the Pac-12. Hint, this team is also tied for second place in the loss column in the Pac-12 standings. Hint No. 2, this team was picked to finish eighth in the preseason coaches poll. Hint No. 3, this team has been the worst basketball program in the conference for years and years and years.
OK, we gave the answer away with Question No. 1. It’s Washington State, which has won five in a row and has just three conferences losses, which is the same as UCLA and Oregon and one fewer than USC.
The Cougars have a NET ranking of 36 and are on the bubble for an NCAA tournament berth, which would be their first NCAA tournament berth in 14 years, when Tony Bennett took WSU to the NCAAs two years in a row.
Washington State has not won a conference title since 1941, and the Cougars’ only other conference championship season was in 1917, when they finished 25-1, including a four wins over Whitman and a 72-13 victory over Almira Athletic Club (Almira beat the spread, though, which reportedly was 60 points.) That 2017 WSU team was retroactively named national champion.
This season’s Cougars are not going to win a national championship, and they probably aren’t going to win a conference title for the first time in 81 years either. But there is no question that coach Kyle Smith has done an amazing job of lifting the program to respectability.
And this is not like previous competitive WSU teams that stayed close with precise execution and a slow-down approach that confounded foes. These Cougars are athletes who like to run and take three-pointers. WSU leads the conference in three-pointers attempted and made, with transfers Michael Flowers (144 threes attempts) and Tyrell Roberts (123 threes attempted) leading the way. It also has two high-flying rim-protectors in 6-foot-10 Efe Adogidi and 6-foot-11 freshman Mouhamed Gueye.
But there is one major reason to question the Cougars’ accomplishments:
THEY HAVEN’T BEATEN ANYBODY.
WSU has not defeated any team that is in the top 75 of Monday’s NET rankings, and the Cougars have played only one of the top four teams in the Pac-12 (Arizona, UCLA, USC and Oregon) and lost that one game to USC.
The Cougars’ lofty position in the NET rankings is a result of the fact that they have not lost any game by more than six points, and margin of victory (or defeat) is part of the NET ranking formula.
The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.
Whether Washington State is an NCAA tournament team will be determined over the next two weeks, when the Cougars go through a Pac-12 buzzsaw.
Thursday: Home game vs. No. 4 Arizona
Saturday: home game vs. Arizona State (which is coming off a win over UCLA).
Monday, Feb. 14: Road game vs. Oregon
Thursday, Feb. 17, Road game vs. No. 12 UCLA
Sunday, Feb. 20: Road game vs. No. 21 USC
Get back to me on Feb. 21.
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---Question No. 2: Is the Pac-12 title race over?
Arizona’s victory over UCLA and the Bruins’ subsequent loss to Arizona State has given the Wildcats a two-game lead in the loss column over UCLA, Oregon and Washington State.
Arizona has 10 scheduled conference games left before the start of the Pac-12 tournament, and only three are against title contenders – Thursday’s road game against Washington State, which has yet to prove itself against the best Pac-12 teams, a Feb. 14 game against Oregon in Tucson, where the Wildcats are 13-0, and a March 1 road game against USC, which could be a title clincher.
With Azuolas Tubelis healthy again, it’s hard to image Arizona losing more than two games, but this is the Pac-12 where teams like Arizona State can beat a team like UCLA.
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---Question No. 3: Which Pac-12 teams will receive NCAA tournament bids?
Arizona and UCLA are virtual locks to get an NCAA tournament berths, and USC will get in without too much fuss unless it crumbles down the stretch.
The questions surround Stanford (14-8, 7-5 Pac-12, No. 89 NET ranking), Oregon (15-7, 8-3, No. 49 NET ranking) and Washington State (14-7, 7-3, No. 36 NET ranking), all living uncomfortably on the bubble.
The USA TODAY Bracketology released Monday has only Arizona, USC and UCLA from the Pac-12 in the 68-team field, with Oregon as one of the “first four out” and Washington State as one of “next four out.” It doesn’t even include Stanford in the 18 teams in the “Others considered for at-large bids” category.
However, the CBS Sports Bracketology updated Monday has both Oregon and Stanford in its NCAA tournament field, but does not have Washington State in the field or among its “first 4 out.”
In his twitter post on Sunday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Oregon safely in the field without having to play a preliminary-round game and has Washington State on the verge of a berth as one of the “first four out.” Stanford is nowhere to be found, but that was before the Cardinal beat Washington Sunday.
Conclusion? Oregon, Stanford and Washington State need to win some games.
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Top Five Pac-12 Teams (at the moment)
---1. Arizona (19-2, 9-1 Pac-12) – But the Wildcats don’t look as unbeatable as they did two weeks ago.
---2. UCLA (16-4, 8-3) -- The Bruins are barely clinging to the No. 2 slot after losing both games last week.
---3. Oregon (15-7, 8-3) – We nearly put the Ducks at No. 2 since they have won nine of their past 10 games.
---4. USC (19-4, 9-4) – The Trojans are currently fifth in the Pac-12 standings and remain an enigma.
---5. Washington State (14-7, 7-3) – The Cougars’ record says they belong here, but we’ll see what happens this week.
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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings (The Magnificent Seven):
---1. Will Richardson, Oregon – Placing Richardson atop the list may surprise people, but he is fourth in the Pac-12 in scoring (15.2 per game) and first in three-point percentage (46.7%) for a team that is tied for second place and on the rise. In conference games only, Richardson is averaging 17.6 points.
---2. Terrell Brown Jr., Washington – His 21.95 points per game lead the Pac-12 and rank sixth in the country. If the Huskies had defeated Stanford on Sunday to improve to 8-3 in the conference, he might be No. 1.
---3. Johnny Juzang, UCLA – Although Juzang is second in the Pac-12 in scoring at 17.8 points per contest, he is shooting 36.4 percent from the floor over the past three games and is 1-for-8 on three-point shots the past two games.
---4. Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona – His 18 points and 11 rebounds in the win over USC pushes him – ever so slightly – over teammate Bennedict Mathurin for the time being.
---5. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona – He’s scoring 16.5 points a game, but has gone eight straight games without reaching his scoring average. He or Tubelis will move up if Arizona stays atop the standings.
---6. Isaiah Mobley, USC – Mobley is fifth in the conference in scoring (14.7) and tied for second in rebounding (8.5), but his shooting percentage has dipped lately.
---7. Tyger Campbell, UCLA – He has lost his touch from long range, making just 20.8 percent of his three-point shots in the past eight games, but he seems to score when it matters most.
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Player of the Week:
Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona
His numbers were rather pedestrian – 16.0 points, 8.0 rebounds -- in two games last week, but he did it while helping Arizona beat two ranked team, UCLA and USC.
Washington’s Terrell Brown Jr. averaged 24.5 points in the Huskies’ two games, but they got blown out by Stanford on Sunday.
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Team on the Rise
---Washington State (14-7, 7-3) – The Huskies have the conference’s longest current winning streak at five in a row and have injected themselves into the Pac-12 title race.
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Team on the Skids
---UCLA (16-4, 8-3) -- The Bruins have lost two in a row, and although there was no shame in losing at Arizona, losing to Arizona State, which had lost four in a row and seven of its previous eight games, was not encouraging.
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Team on a Mystery Tour
---Arizona State (7-13, 3-7) – The Sun Devils’ record is still lousy, but in the past three games they have shown signs they might be dangerous down the stretch. They had a lead on Arizona eight minutes into the second half; they led USC with 1:34 remaining in the game; and they beat UCLA in three overtimes. We don’t know what to expect from Bobby Hurley’s crew now.
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Numbers of Note:
0-for-6 – Johnny Juzang’s shooting percentage in the three overtimes against Arizona State, which won the game.
14 – Years it has been since Washington State finished with a winning record in conference play.
4 – Number of times Washington State finished with a winning conference mark in the past 38 seasons.
0 – Number of times Washington State finished with a winning conference record in Klay Thompson’s three seasons at WSU.
29 – Years it had been since Washington State swept the Bay Area schools (Cal and Stanford) before the Cougars did it last week.
66 – Years it had been since an unranked team beat a top-five team in a game that went three overtimes or more before Arizona State upset No. 3 UCLA in three overtimes on Saturday. On March 12, 1956, an unranked Canisius team knocked off No. 2 North Carolina State by a point in four overtimes in a first-round NCAA tournament game at Madison Square Garden.
15 – Number of home games Arizona has won consecutively, which is the longest active home winning streak in the Pac-12 but a long way from the longest active home winning streak in the country. Gonzaga has won 64 in a row at home.
27.99% -- Arizona State’s three-point shooting percentage, which ranks 342nd among 350 Division I schools and last among teams from a power basketball conference. The Sun Devils made 11 three-pointers in the win over UCLA.
0 – Number of Pac-12 teams that rank among the top 60 teams in the county in three-point shooting percentage.
22 – Number of free throws attempted by Arizona State’s DJ Horne this season.
22 – Number of free throws made by Arizona State’s DJ Horne this season. (He would lead the nation obviously, but a player needs to average at least 2.5 free throws per game to qualify for a national ranking.)
29 – Number of consecutive free throws Arizona State’s DJ Horne has made. He made his final seven free throws last season while playing for Illinois State. His last miss came with 10 seconds left in the final regular-season game against Northern Iowa, and probably cost the Redbirds a game they lost in overtime.
131 – Washington’s NET ranking, which is why nobody is paying attention to the Huskies as a possible NCAA tournament team.
0-23 – The combined records of Cal, Utah and Oregon State in games played on their opponents’ home court this season. Cal plays at Oregon State on Wednesday.
53.1 – Three-point shooting percentage of Oregon’s Will Richardson over the past nine games, eight of which the Ducks won.
1 – Number of three-point shots Washington guard Terrell Brown Jr. has made in the past six games.
9 – Number of three-pointers Brown has made this entire season.
24.3 – Brown’s three-point shooting percentage.
0 – Number of players from power basketball conferences that are averaging more than Brown’s 21.95 points per game.
70 – Oregon State’s margin of defeat in its last three games combined, against Oregon, Colorado and Utah.
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Cover photo of Washington State's Michael Flowers by James Snook, USA TODAY Sports
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