History Says Jared Goff Should Be an MVP Contender, So Why Isn't He?

History says former Cal star Jared Goff should be a leading contender for the NFL MVP award this year, perhaps even the favorite. The opinion of everyone that matters says he isn't.

The people in position of influence claim that four players are vying for MVP – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley and Joe Burrow. And MVP voting is often based on media momentum. In other words, once the media begins saying a player is a strong MVP candidate, voters tend to latch on to that narrative and find reasons to agree.

A check of the betting odds supports the four-player MVP contingent. Allen is the favorite on virtually every major betting site. Jackson is second on every site. There is a gap after that with Barkley third on some betting sites and Burrow third on others. Fifth, a long way behind the others, is Goff at odds ranging from 100-to-1 to 150-to-1. (MVP voting ends before the postseason starts. Some believe MVP voting should take place after the playoffs, but it has always been a regular-season award.)

Granted, this is a Cal sports site, so we acknowledge the bias. However, a pretty strong case can be made for Goff’s MVP candidacy, a case that’s being ignored.

It begins with the long-held belief that a quarterback’s worth is based – almost solely -- on the success of his team. Statistics are used to gauge the value of receivers or running backs, but it’s different for a quarterback, whose sole purpose as the centerpiece of an offense is to win games. Period.

Tom Brady is considered the best quarterback of alltime not for the numbers he produced but for one simple statistic – seven Super Bowl titles. Like it or not, the team’s success is the measuring stick for quarterbacks, and you can’t ignore that tenet simply because it’s not convenient for your argument.

MVP voters have abided this supposition through the years; won-loss record has been the main criterion considered in MVP voting since the award began, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.

The last three MVPs have been quarterbacks who played for a team with the best regular-season record in the NFL, and the last seven were quarterbacks who played for teams that had the best record in their conference. Allen, Burrow and Jackson did not do that.

Of the past 15 MVPs, only two played for a team that did not have the best record in its conference:

---2016 when Matt Ryan of the 11-5 Falcons won the MVP over Dak Prescott of the 13-3 Cowboys, who had the best record in the NFC, and Tom Brady of the 14-2 Patriots, although it should be noted Brady missed four games that season.

---2012 when running back Adrian Peterson of the 10-6 Vikings won after rushing for 2,097 yards, the second-most in NFL history and just eight yards off the record. (Remember, stats matter for running backs.)

And the trend continued down through the MVP history, until the early 1970s, with the quarterback of the team with the best record winning the MVP a great majority of the time. Before then, quarterback play was not as influential as it is today.

The most important takeaway from the MVP history is that only once in the past 39 years has a quarterback from a team that had a regular-season winning percentage as good or better than the 2024 Lions (15-2, .882 winning percentage) failed to win the MVP. That lone exception came in 2004 when the Steelers finished 15-1 and Ben Roethlisberger did not win the MVP. There is one important caveat: Roethlisberger did not start three games that season because of injury.

And MVPs virtually always reach the playoffs. Since the AP started awarding the MVP in 1956, only twice has the MVP’s team failed to reach the postseason – 1973 when MVP O.J. Simpson rushed for a record 2,003 yards for the 9-5 Bills, and 1967 when MVP winner Johnny Unitas played for the 11-1-2 Colts, which tied for the division title and the best record in the NFL but lost a tiebreaker for one of the four playoff spots that season.

With that in mind, Joe Burrow should not even be part of the MVP conversation. Yes, he had an outstanding season, but his team went 9-8 and failed to reach the playoffs. If he had 100 touchdown passes and zero interceptions, he should not be an MVP candidate if his team goes 9-8 and fails to reach the postseason. He is measured by his team’s success to a large extent, and his team did not have MVP-caliber success.

OK, that leaves three other candidates – Barkley, Jackson and Allen. Barkley should be eliminated out of hand because a running back should never be the most valuable player. Quarterbacks determine a team’s success. Only quarterbacks can win an MVP. The last 11 MVPs and 21 of the past 22 have been quarterbacks, and that trend should not change unless some unusual circumstances come into play.

So we have Allen, whose team finished 13-4, and we have Jackson, whose team went 12-5. And, for the sake of argument, we have Goff, whose team went 15-2. We also have Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs also finished 15-2, but if you need statistics for a tiebreaker, Goff’s numbers in 2024 dwarf what Mahomes has put up this season. In fact, Goff’s statistics compare favorably with any quarterback in the NFL.

The stat that tells the most about a quarterback’s passing effectiveness is passer rating, and Goff finished second in the NFL in that category at 111.8, behind only Jackson. Goff is second in passing yards per game, behind only Burrow. Goff is fourth in touchdown passes, behind Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Jackson. Allen, the presumed MVP leader, is not in the top five in any of those categories.

Goff is the pivotal component of a Lions offense that ranks first in the NFL in scoring at 33.2 points per game and second in total offense. Detroit’s scoring is not the product of a great defense since the Lions rank 20th in the NFL in total defense, so the offense does the heavy lisfting.

Goff’s MVP problem is not his performance or his impact, but his style. Jackson and Allen can make plays with their feet, causing excitement and highlight-film plays that lead to MVP hype. Goff is an old-school pocket passer in the mold of a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. He does not create plays with foot speed that produce awe. He does not evoke oohs and aahs by escaping potentially disastrous situations. He simply does what is needed to win games.

And there’s one other thing that is interesting. When Allen, Jackson or Burrow has had a big game this season, fans in Buffalo, Baltimore and Cincinnati have begun chanting “M-V-P, M-V-P” during the game. After the Lions have won a game, Detroit fans chant “Ja-red Goff, Ja-red Goff.” Detroit fans are acknowledging that Goff is the player most responsible for lifting the Lions franchise out of years of mediocrity to the best record in the NFL.

That’s what MVPs do.