How Far Did the Duke Collapse Drop Cal in ESPN's SP+ Rankings?

The fallout from Cal’s 45-21 loss to Duke includes a drop of nine spots to No. 82 nationally in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

The Bears, although 4-2 overall and one of five teams tied for sixth at 1-1 in the ACC, are the fourth-lowest rated school from the conference.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who created the SP+ rankings, explains here how they work:

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does.

It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

The Bears reached No. 54 after starting the season 3-0, then slid to No. 72 following their 34-0 loss at San Diego State. The fall wasn’t as precipitous this time, partly because they were lower to start.

At 3-0, the Bears were projected to be favored in their next six games, Connelly wrote. The SDSU defeat altered that picture. On Saturday, they had a 21-7 lead early in the second quarter before being outscored 38-0 the rest of the way.

Cal has a bye this week then has back-to-back Friday night games against teams also residing in the lower reaches of the SP+ poll.

The Bears return to action a week from Friday at Memorial Stadium against North Carolina (2-3, 0-1), which plummeted 15 spots to No. 101 after it 38-10 home defeat to Clemson.

Cal then treks to Virginia Tech for an Oct. 17 matchup vs. Virginia Tech (2-4, 1-1), which actually crept up one spot to No. 67 after its 30-23 home loss to Wake Forest.

The two contests represent an opportunity for the Bears to potentially reach six wins and bowl eligibility with four games remaining on their schedule.

The remainder of their schedule and the SP+ rankings of those opponents:

Nov. 1: vs. 51 Virginia (5-1, 3-0)

Nov. 8: at 28 Louisville (4-1, 1-1)

Nov. 22: at 99 Stanford (2-3, 1-1)

Nov. 29: vs. 48 SMU (3-2, 1-0)

The Virginia game could be more challenging than its SP+ ranking suggests. The Cavaliers are tied for first in the ACC standings and No. 19 in the current AP Top-25.

The top-5 of the SP+ rankings features teams with 5-0 records: 1. Oregon; 2. Ohio State; 3. Indiana; 4. Texas Tech; 5. Oklahoma.

Miami (5-0, 1-0) is the highest-rated ACC team at No. 12, and the league’s only squad to reach the top-25. The Hurricanes get substantially more respect from the AP Top-25, which has them at No. 2 this week, one spot ahead of Oregon and trailing only Ohio State.

Florida State (3-2, 0-2) dropped five spots to No. 27 after its 28-22 home defeat to Miami.

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