Our Assessment of ESPN’s Grades for Cal’s Hiring of Tosh Lupoi

ESPN presented two articles on Friday grading the head coaching hires of FBS programs across the country, and one gave Cal a higher grade than the other.

We have comments about both assessments, which we will share later.

One ESPN article by Bill Connelly ranked all 32 coaching hires, and put Cal in the middle, ranking it at No. 18 in this category: “Grade: B (don't absolutely love it but won't be surprised if it works out)”

Connelly has concerns about Lupoi’s choice for offensive coordinator.

The other ESPN article by Adam Rittenberg with assistance from Kyle Bonagura graded the 16 Power Four conference coaching hires. It gives Cal an A- for its hire of Lupoi, with only two schools getting higher grades.

Only Kansas State’s hiring of Collin Klein and Virginia Tech’s hiring of James Franklin received A’s.

Michigan’s hiring of Kyle Whittingham received only a B+, and Cal fans might be interested in knowing that Stanford’s hiring of Tavita Pritchard received the lowest grade, a C+.

Pritchard’s hiring was ranked 28th of the 32 coaching changes by Connelly.

Here is Connelly’s appraisal of Cal's hire with our comments afterward:

18. Tosh Lupoi, California. With obvious exceptions, most of the best active and recent have come from the offensive side of the ball, so right or wrong, I tend to look at defensive coordinator-to-head coach hires with a bit more scrutiny. Or at least, I wait to see whether said former DC makes an offensive coordinator hire that doesn't seem either hostile to recent offensive trends (the Will Muschamp special) or focused too heavily on a "pro-style" approach that often lacks identity.

Long known as an elite recruiter, Lupoi has spent the past four seasons slowly building Oregon's defense into a wrecking ball. It was beyond time for him to get a head coaching opportunity, and he aced his first test in making sure quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in Berkeley. But his first offensive coordinator is a young former Oregon staffer who spent the past three seasons as assistant QBs coach in the very pro-style pros.

Maybe Jordan Somerville will turn out to be a genius hire, but I don't love the logic there. It produces a slight point deduction, at least.

Regarding the concern about Lupoi coming from the defensive side, it should be noted that four of the eight head coaches in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals came from the defensive side of the ball, and that includes Kirby Smart of Georgia, Dan Lanning of Oregon and Joey McGuire of Texas Tech, considered among the top head coaches in the country and all among the top five seeds in the CFP.

Jordan Somerville, Lupoi's choice for offensive coordinator, comes from an NFL background, so we will have to see what offensive approach he adopts. He has never been a coordinator, so that does give pause, but uncertainty does not preclude offensive genius, and everyone says Somerville is a smart guy.

The ESPN report by Rittenberg provides a more comprehensive look at Cal’s hire, which is presented here with our comments afterward:

Cal hires Tosh Lupoi

Why is this a good fit?

Lupoi is a Bay Area native and a Cal alum who returns to his alma mater with vast knowledge, after working under Nick Saban at Alabama, Dan Lanning at Oregon and with three NFL teams. He's no longer the young assistant with the controversial recruiting reputation, but his passion for personnel and understanding of how to construct top rosters should really help Cal. The program finally has the leadership, from general manager Ron Rivera to university chancellor Rich Lyons, to accelerate its efforts for recruits, transfers and in keeping top players. Lupoi will be extremely hands-on in those areas, and his familiarity with the West Coast recruiting scene should pay off immediately.

The 44-year-old also has a strong network in the coaching business, which can be a problem for some first-time head coaches. Lupoi has worked in the Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten, as well as the NFL, and should be able to compile a strong staff of assistants. He should maintain Cal's trajectory on defense that Justin Wilcox started, while enhancing the offense, especially up front but also at the skill spots, where the Bears have lacked depth. He's coming from one of the more aligned programs in the sport in Oregon, and can use the blueprint there to shape Cal. -- Rittenberg

What are the biggest challenges for Lupoi

Lupoi arrives at a place that is comfortable with mediocrity. There is a culture in place -- in the region, at the school, in the athletic department, on the team -- where the Bears are not truly expected to compete for championships. It's part of why Justin Wilcox lasted nine years despite losing five games in his best season (2019). Cal has the necessary ingredients to be competitive in the ACC, but without broadly raising expectations things won't change.

That's why Lupoi is such an interesting choice. He's been around Nick Saban and Alabama. He's been pivotal in Oregon's recent success. He did the NFL thing. And he understands Cal from having played and coached there. He's well positioned to be able to speak hard truths about the state of the program and implement what the winning processes he's been part of. But it won't be easy. A reputational overhaul in recruiting is needed -- especially in California -- for a program that hasn't won an outright conference title since 1958. -- Kyle Bonagura

Grade: A-

Cal is a unique place and having someone like Lupoi who knows the landscape immediately will be helpful. The team needed a dynamic recruiter to improve its overall talent and depth, and Lupoi isn't afraid to be on the front lines in fighting for the best recruits and transfers. Lupoi is a first-time coach and there could be some growing pains, but if he can use the best of what he's learned since he left Cal in 2012, the program should benefit soon and take the next step in the ACC. – Rittenberg

A few things to point out here:

Suggesting that Cal is “a place that is comfortable with mediocrity” does not seem to be the case anymore. The very different perspective of new Cal chancellor Rich Lyons, who says six-win seasons are not good enough, and the hiring of general manager Ron Rivera, who said eight or nine wins in 2025 would constitute a successful season, indicate expectations have been ramped up, as hinted at in the Rittenberg paragraph about why this is a good fit.

Justin Wilcox was fired when the Bears were 6-5, after it had defeated nationally ranked Louisvillle on the road to go to 6-4 but then lost its next game in embarrassing style to Stanford. This sounds more like what happens at Michigan if it loses to Ohio State.

Of course, the fact that Lupoi has never been a head coach creates uncertainty. But Ryan Day (Ohio State), Kirby Smart (Georgia), Dan Lanning (Oregon), Joey McGuire (Texas Tech), Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame), Kilani Sitake (BYU) and Clark Lea (Vanderbilt) had not been head coaches before taking over their current head coaching positions, and those have certainly worked out OK.

Like most of these head coaches, Lupoi was a prominent assistant coach at prominent football schools (Alabama and Oregon).

One final note: It’s not just Lupoi who understands the Bay Area and the Cal situation. He is one of five coaches on his newly named Cal staff who are from the Bay Area, and he has a few more coaching spots to fill. They know the landscape.

Many of the assistant coaches, including both coordinators, are young, and you can decide for yourself whether that is a positive or a negative.

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