Pac-12 Football Championship Game Picks: Washington & Oregon in a Vegas Rematch

The 13th Pac-12 championship game on Friday evening in Las Vegas is the last one we’ll see until and unless college football comes to its senses and somehow undoes the damage that’s coming next fall.

Hope you’re not holding your breath.

Yes, this most entertaining of Pac-12 football seasons is a swan song before four teams each head off to the Big Ten and Big 12, Cal and Stanford find a new home in the ACC, and Oregon State and Washington State . . . well, who knows what becomes of them.

In the meantime, we have unbeaten and No. 3 Washington (12-0) vs. once-beaten (by the Huskies) and No. 5 Oregon (11-1) in a rematch with a lot at stake on an Allegiant Stadium field normally marred by the Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland-Las Vegas Raiders

The winner almost certainly receives an invitation to the four-team College Football Playoff, unless the Ducks win and the selection committee decides it’s obligated to vault a one-loss Alabama team over everyone else.

Our hope is that the rematch is as good as the original, where the Huskies prevailed 36-33 after an 18-yard touchdown pass from Michael Penix Jr. to Rome Odunze with with 1:38 to play.

The game also featured some much-scrutinized decision-making by Oregon coach Dan Lanning, whose Ducks failed three times on fourth-down tries, two of them inside the Oregon 10. Lanning, who otherwise has been spectacular in two seasons at Eugene, shouldered the blame because, well, it was his.

If the game does meet expectations that will be more the exception than the norm in the Pac-12 title game. Only four of those were settled by single-digit margins and the other eight were all one-sided outcomes of 18 points or more. Sometimes way more.

Last week: Jake 4-2, Jeff 3-3,

Season: Jake 48-42, Jeff 47-43

All picks against the spread

Betting line from sisportsbook.com

Friday

Pac-12 Championship Game at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

— No. 5 Oregon (minus-9.5) vs. No. 3 Washington, 5 p.m., ABC

Jake: This is a huge spread considering the underdog Huskies are No. 3 in this week’s CFP rankings, two spots ahead of Oregon, and beat the Ducks earlier this season. However, all the numbers – especially the recent numbers -- favor the Ducks. Oregon’s margin of victory this season is 29.4 points, and Washington’s is about half that at 15.0 points.

And Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has been considerably more productive than Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. the past two weeks. Nix completed 82.6% of his passes for 771 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions against Arizona State and Oregon State while winning those two final regular-season games by a combined margin of 60 points, while Penix completed 50.8% of his passes for 366 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against Oregon State and Washington State while winning those two games by a combined margin of five points.

Washington deserves credit for winning close games (6-0 in one-score games), and if this game is decided in the final two minutes, Washington may have the edge. But I don’t think it will come down to that for one key reason: This game is in Las Vegas, not Seattle, which was the site of the Huskies’ 36-33 victory over Oregon back on October 14. Pick: Oregon

Jeff: I spent a bit of time trying to find a rationale for picking Washington here. Not because I have any allegiance to the Huskies but because Oregon as a 9.5-point favorite over an unbeaten team that already has beaten the Ducks makes me nervous.

I seriously wonder if we have ever seen this set of circumstances before. The Ducks are the ultimate trendy pick here, and you’ve got to figure the Huskies are either motivated by this or totally confused by it. If it’s the latter, does doubt creep in?

What it came down to for me was not UW’s victory by three points in Seattle way back on Oct. 14. The Huskies won’t get any credit for that when these teams kick off on Friday evening. What it came down to was what the Huskies and Ducks have done since then.

And that’s where Oregon has a significant edge. Both teams are 6-0 since their first meeting, and their three toughest games during that stretch were against the same opponents: USC, Utah and Oregon State.

Over those six games, Oregon has won by an average margin of 26 points while UW has won by 6.5 points, none of them by more than 10 points. In fact, the Huskies have not won by more than that the since way back on Sept. 23 when they jumped on Cal early and breezed to a 59-32 victory.

All of which leads me to an inescapable conclusion that could turn out to be foolish. The Pick: Oregon

Cover photo of Washington's Rome Odunze celebrating his game-winning touchdown vs. Oregon by Steve Bisig, USA Today

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo