Why the 49ers Might Trade for Aaron Rodgers
You can make a pretty good case for why the San Francisco 49ers might trade for Aaron Rodgers. So we’ll make that case.
When ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Monday that the Packers would like to move Rodgers this offseason, media folks began churning out possible trade destinations for the former Cal quarterback if he opts to continue playing in 2023.
The focus has been on the New York Jets as a possible landing spot for Rodgers, but the elbow injury to Brock Purdy should put the 49ers among the teams that may be interested in acquiring Rodgers.
Even before Purdy’s injury, Nate Davis of USA Today made a case that San Francisco might be Rodgers’ next team.
Silly, right? An already loaded team is on the cusp of reaching the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to rookie QB Brock Purdy and that seventh-round contract he has through the 2025 season. And, of course, injured Trey Lance, whom the Niners invested so heavily to obtain with the third overall pick of the 2021 draft was supposed to be the face of the franchise for the next decade. It's also important to note San Francisco has no first-round pick to offer Green Bay as it was already offloaded in the deal two years ago that allowed the 49ers to select Lance. They do currently have roughly $17 million available, per OverTheCap, but a long-term extension for probable 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa is also a leading business priority for 2023.
Still, there's always been some romanticism here, real or perceived, linked to Northern California native Rodgers, who grew up rooting for the 49ers ... even though they infamously bypassed him to draft Alex Smith atop the 2005 draft. And surely whatever happens over the next Sunday – or three – will be informative given this organization didn't take long to begin searching for Jimmy Garoppolo's successor even though he was one good pass from likely securing victory in Super Bowl 54.
(Also, if the Niners decide they need to pivot, they could always sign that kid from up the street – Brady – without losing draft compensation.)
OK, good points, but the Purdy injury adds a dimension to the 49ers’ situation. Purdy is expected to have surgery that will sideline him for six months, and if reconstructive surgery is required he will be out a lot longer. In short, his status for 2023 is in question.
Trey Lance, the 49ers opening-game starter in 2022, suffered a season-ending ankle injury that required two surgeries, the second one being performed in December. He is expected to be back by OTAs (organized team activities), but returning from leg or foot surgeries always makes recovery time uncertain. And if there are any setbacks, Lance might not be ready to go and properly prepared by the time the season-opening game is played.
Not only would Lance be returning from injury, but he has made only four NFL starts with mediocre statistics – 48.4% completion, no TDs and one interception in limited action in 2022.
Jimmy Garoppolo? He certainly helped the 49ers this past season before suffering a season-ending broken foot. He is expected to be completely healed in the next month or so, and there initially were hints that he might be back for the playoffs this season. So he will be ready to go in 2023.
One problem. Garoppolo is an unrestricted free agent, and do you think a guy who sees himself as an NFL starter would want to return to a team that will have two young up-and-comers ready to go by 2024 at the latest? Even if neither Lance or Purdy is ready to go in 2023, Garoppolo would be the 49ers’ starter for just one season. He's not likely to sign a contract with the 49ers to return to that situation.
So the Niners may need a quarterback for next season, but only next season.
That’s where Tom Brady and Rodgers come it. There have been a flurry of rumors that the 49ers might be interested in signing Brady, who is a free agent. He has not declared whether he will play next season, and will turn 45 before the start of the 2023 season. But Brady, who grew up the Bay Area (San Mateo, Calif.) as a 49ers fan, might be willing to be a one-year stop gap quarterback for the 49ers before retiring.
Update: Tom Brady announced his retirement on Wednesday, ending the possibility of the 49ers signing him. It leaves Rodgers as the 49ers' best option for a proven quarterback willing to play just one or two more years.
Any quarterback would want to be part of Kyle Shanahan’s impressive offensive scheme, and the 49ers seem to have all the ingredients for a Super Bowl team – with the exception of an elite quarterback. Shanahan has coaxed the 49ers to the NFC championship game in three of the past four years without a star at the most important position – twice with Garoppolo and once with Purdy. So what would Shanahan be able to do with an established star at quarterback?
Rodgers has said he wants to play for a team that has Super Bowl potential, and the 49ers fit that description.
The 49ers have a number of free agents they have to address, but the only notable free agent on offense is offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey. All the rest of San Francisco’s offensive stars are expected back, with the lone possible exception of Christian McCaffrey. His contract runs through the 2025 season, but it includes a potential out after the 2022 season. Simply put, the 49ers won’t let him get away.
All of the things that apply to Brady also apply to Rodgers, who grew up in Northern California (Chico, Calif.) as a 49ers fan, played college ball in the Bay Area (Cal) and was disappointed when the 49ers did not make him the first overall selection in the 2005 NFL draft.
Rodgers said recently he understands that he might be traded this offseason, and presumably he would have a little something to say about his trade destination. He’s also admitted that his contract might have to be restructured. Rodgers is due to make nearly $60 million next season, and not many trade partners could handle that unless Rodgers agrees to modify his pact. That's why Rodgers made it known he's willing to rework his contract.
The 49ers do have some cap room – about $16.5 million, according to reports – so they could do some business, even with the prospect of paying Bosa big money.
A bigger problem in acquiring Rodgers is the lack of trade capital, something that would not be an issue with Brady. The 49ers do not have a first- or second-round pick in the 2023 draft, and if the Packers decided they want to move Rodgers, they would probably want some high draft picks. The 49ers would have to offer future early-round picks and an established player or two.
But Rodgers, who will turn 40 next December, is nearly five years younger than Brady and is more likely to have something left. You could argue than neither is the elite quarterback he was in years past, based on their 2022 performances, but Rodgers is just one season removed from winning a second straight MVP in 2021.
And here’s the biggest factor: Unlike many other teams, the 49ers might be willing to acquire Rodgers for just one or two seasons with the knowledge that their long-term quarterback is waiting there in Purdy or Lance. And Rodgers might be willing to play for a championship-caliber team knowing it would be for just one or two seasons with retirement imminent.
Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday that it will be a “couple weeks” before he announces whether he is retiring. “Until after the Super Bowl at the earliest,” he said.
But if Rodgers decides to return for one more year, you can see how nicely he would fit into the 49ers’ plans given their quarterback uncertainties and their potential for success in 2023. Presumably, Shanahan and GM John Lynch would see that too.
Rodgers appeared on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday. His 20-minute session on the show starts about 2 hours and 13 minutes into the video below.
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Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports
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