Cal Football 2020 Assessment: Part 3, Passing Offense
Part 3 of our assessment of Cal's 2020 football team addresses the Bears' passing offense.
Wide receiver Nikko Remigio, who was the Bears leading receiver last season, provides his thoughts on Cal's passing game in the video above.
Cal Stats That Matter
2019 Passing yards per game -- 197.0, 12th in Pac-12
2019 Passing yards per attempt -- 7.0, 10th in Pac-12
2019 Passer rating -- 131.5, 12th in Pac-12
2019 Sacks allowed -- 47, most in Pac-12
Cal had the worst passing offense in the Pac-12 last season, and that is the category in which the Bears need the most improvement.
The Cal stats are skewed somewhat because starter Chase Garbers missed considerable playing time and his backups were not as productive. But having a capable backup quarterback is critical in the Pac-12 where injuries to quarterbacks are common.
Utah had by far the best passer rating in the conference, and the Utes got to the Pac-12 title game, where they lost to Oregon, which had the third-best passer rating. So having an efficient passing game is critical for Cal if it is to challenge for a conference title.
So is protecting the quarterback. Last year Cal yielded the most sacks in the conference and more than only five of the 130 FBS teams. Cal allowed 47 sacks; Pac-12 champion Oregon allowed 17.
Four issues will determine whether Cal can make the improvement it needs to make in the passing game.
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1. Will quarterback Chase Garbers improve as much from his sophomore to junior season and he did from his freshman to his sophomore season?
This past spring Garbers acted more like a starting quarterback than he had a year ago, displaying the self-confidence and command that a quarterback needs to succeed in the Pac-12.
His improvement in 2019 from his redshirt freshman season was striking, and more than a few observers expect him to rise to another level in 2020. He clearly has the physical tools, and as one of just four returning starters in the Pac-12--and the only returning starter in the Pac-12 North--he has the experience to become an elite quarterback.
His 148.9 passer rating in 2019 would have been seventh in the Pac-12 if he had had enough attempts to qualify, and there is a general feeling that having Bill Musgrave as the offensive cordinator and quarterback coach should enhance his progress.
The fact that Cal was 7-0 last year in games in which he played more than one half is indicative of his importance to the team's sucess, but that stat is a bit misleading. His absence coincided with road losses to Utah and Oregon, teams the Bears were unlikely to beat even with Garbers, and his absence in the second half of the USC game was not the reason the Trojans' offense marched up and down the field in USC's 41-17 victory.
So there are three keys to Garbers' 2020 success: 1. stay healthy. 2. learn to get rid of the ball in a timely fashion after holding the ball too long on many occasions last season, 3. get complete command of the Bill Musgrave system and benefit from his coaching.
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2. Will Bill Musgrave have a significant impact on Cal's passing game?
Musgrave has been the offensive coordinator for six NFL teams, and the announcement of his hiring brought expectations of major improvement in a Cal passing game based on NFL principles.
"A lot of versatility--I'd say that was the core theme that I've been kind of branding our new offense as," Cal wide receiver Nikko Remigio said. "I think an issue we ran into last year was being a bit predictable and not a lot of variation."
But will the Bears' quarterbacks and receivers be properly schooled in Musgrave's system? Cal completed just four of its 15 scheduled spring practices, and it remains to be seen when and how preseason practices will be conducted.
Perhaps the bigger question is this: Will Musgrave's NFL system work with college players? In his only two seasons as a college offensive coordinator, Virginia went 5-7 in 2001 and 9-5 in 2002, with Cavaliers quarterback Matt Schaub being named ACC player of the year in 2002.
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3. Do the Bears have the receivers it needs to have a succesful passing game?
No Cal receiver ranked among the top 25 Pac-12 players in receiving yards per game in 2019, and the Bears still lack that NFL-caliber receiver that teams like USC seem to have in abundance.
Remigio, the Bears' leading receiver last season, is likely to rise to another level, and Makai Polk had nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown over the final two games of his freshman season, suggesting he could be something special.
Kekoa Crawford played in just six games, but showed some big-time potential when he was healthy, and Jake Tonges and Gavin Reinwald give the Bears a pair of capable pass-catching tight ends.
Somebody needs to emerge as a star, though.
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4. Can Cal give its quarterback sufficient time to throw?
Three issues live within this issue after Cal yielded 47 sacks in 2019, by far the most in the conference.
--Garbers seemed to hold the ball a little too long, and he should improve in that regard with another year of experience.
--Cal had injuries throughout the offensive line last season, and the offensive line returns all the key components this season, so it should be better.
--Play-action is successful only if the run-game threat is genuine. Being in passing situations much of the time hurt Cal's offense last season. The Bears' running game should be a bit better in 2020, which should help the passing game.
Cal still does not have an elite offensive line or an elite run game, so avoiding sacks will depend to a large extent on the wizardry of Bill Musgrave.
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Conclusion
Cal's passing attack will be signficiantly better in 2020 as long as Garbers stays healthy, but it might not be among the best in the Pac-12 unless an all-conference-level receiver emerges. Cal's passing-game success will depend a lot of how well Cal can run the ball and how well the players grasp Musgrave's system.
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CLick here for Part 1, Cal's Rushing offense
Click here for Part 2, Cal's Rushing defense
Click here for Part 4, Cal's Passing defense
Click here for Part 5, Big-Play Potential
Click here for Part 6, Special Teams
Click here for Part 7, Momentum, Expectations, Schedule, Depth
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