Cal Football 2020 Assessment: Part 1, Rushing Offense
We begin our seven-part series on various aspects of the 2020 Cal football team by looking at the Bears' running game and whether it will be better than it was last season.
Cal running backs coach Aristotle Thompson provides insight into the Bears running game in the two videos in this story.
Cal Stats That Matter
2019 rushing yards per game -- 131.5, 8th in Pac-12
2019 rushing yards per carry -- 3.6, 10th in the Pac-12
2019 leading rusher, Christopher Brown Jr. -- 914 yards in 13 games -- 4.4 yards per carry, 13th in the Pac-12
It's no coincidence that the two teams that played in the Pac-12 championship game last season were also the top two teams in yards per rushing attempt. Oregon averaged 4.9 yards per rush, and Utah was next at 4.8. And yards per attempt are the key numbers when evaluating the success of a running game.
Cal's average of 3.6 yards per rushing attempt in 2019 needs to improve significantly for the Bears to be a title contender. But there is reason to believe the running game will be better in 2020 for several simple reasons:
1. Every significant running back from last year returns in 2020
Christopher Brown Jr. seems to be getting better. He had the two best performances of the 2019 season in the final two games, rushing for 111 yards in the win over UCLA and 120 in the bowl-game win over Illinois, averaging 6.1 yards per carry over those two games. His physical style should play well in the Bill Musgrave offense, but he missed some action last year because of injuries and needs remain injury-free, not an easy task with his style.
Marcel Dancy and DeShawn Collins provide a perimeter threat as Brown's backups, and new running backs coach Aristotle Thompson suggests Collins might surprise people this year.
"He has some home-run potential in him," Thompson said in the video below. "He has some speed that has not really been seen."
The addition of Wisconsin grad transfer Bradrick Shaw should help some but he is not expected to be a game-changer. He is a downhill runner, much like Brown, although Brown still figures to get the bulk of the carries. The big question about Shaw is his knee. He missed the entire 2018 season after tearing his ACL in the final game of the 2017 season, and he had only 18 carries in 2019 for the Badgers. He did break off a 42-yard run against Michigan last year, but that run accounted for more than one-third of his rushing total for the season.
Quarterback Chase Garbers is also a running threat, but Cal coaches might limit his run-game responsibilities after he missed nearly half of the 2019 season with injuries.
2. The offensive line returns in tact
Every key member of the offensive line returns in 2020, and that includes the return of tackles Will Craig and Gentle Williams, who missed virtually the entire 2019 season with injuries after being listed as starters. Tackle Jake Curhan and center Michael Saffell are potential stars, and the depth along the offensive line is considerably better than it's been in recent years.
The Bears' offensive line often held its own last season, but seldom dominated the line of scrimmage, a big reason the yards-per-carry were insufficient. Just because the entire offensive line returns does not necessarily mean it will be better, although offensive lines that spend a lot of time together typically do improve. Whether it will improve enough to bust holes through Pac-12 defensive fronts is the question.
3. Opposing defenses should respect Cal's passing game more
Running games succeed when defenses cannot load the line of scrimmage with eight or nine defenders. Cal faced that kind of front-loaded defense in 2018, and, to a lesser extent, in 2019, as defenses dared Cal to beat them with big-play passes.
There is an expectation that quarterback Chase Garbers will make as much progress in 2020 as he did in 2019 and provide the Bears with a passing threat that will yield some big plays. It is still debatable whether Cal has enough speed on the outside to discourage defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage.
4. Bill Musgrave is the offensive coordinator
Musgrave's experience as offensive coordinator for six NFL teams had led to the belief that he can work near-miracles for the Bears' offense.
"Coach Musgrave as a play-caller is going to put us in great position to execute the run game," Thompson said.
The running game will look different.
"You'll start to see a different version of the running game than what you saw last season," Thompson said.
You're lkely to see more formations, greater use of a fullback as a blocking back, and some power packages that include two- or three-tight end sets.
A major concern is whether the Cal players can sufficiently learn Musgrave's NFL system with just four spring practices and an uncertain amount of preseason work.
Conclusion
The Cal running game will be better in 2020, perhaps putting it among the top six rushing teams in the Pac-12 while Brown records a 1,000-yard season. But the Bears will still lag behind the conference's top rushing teams and may not be in complete working order until the 2021 season.
Click here for Part 2, Rushing Defense
Click here for Part 3, Passing Offense
Click here for Part 4, Passing defense
Click here for Part 5, Big-Play Potential
Click here for Part 6, Special Teams
Click here for Part 7, Momentum, Expectations, Schedule, Depth
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