Cal Football 2020 Assessment: Part 5, Big-Play Potential
Part 5 of our assessment of Cal's 2020 season addresses big-play potential.
Coach Justin Wilcox has stated several times that the two best statistical indicators of wins and losses in football are turnover margin and explosive plays.
This category goes by several names -- big plays, explosive plays, chunk plays, game-changing plays -- but these big gainers by any name are so critical for success in college football these days that we thought they deserved a category of their own.
Wide receiver Nikko Remigio, one of the Bears' top big-play weapons, provides commentary on the subject in the video above.
Assessing big-play potential is a subjective undertaking with some subtle elements.
Cal Stats That Matter
2019 Offensive plays of 30 yards or more -- 21
Cal's 21 plays of 30 yards or more in 2019 represent a signficant improvement over 2018, when the Bears produced just eight plays of more than 30 yards. By comparison, Pac-12 champion Oregon produced 30 plays of 30 yards or more in 2019, and national champion LSU had 55 such plays. So Cal has room for improvement.
Producing big plays requires a number of elements, such as the ability of wide receivers to block downfield and an offensive line that can provide the time and space for a big play to develop, but in general it boils down to three issues:
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1. Can the quarterback accurately throw the deep ball and hit receivers in stride so they can run after the catch?
Chase Garbers' arm is strong enough to do both, and last year he demonstrated more willingness to throw deep. His accuracy on deep passes was decent, not great, but he should improve in that department with another year of experience. That experience should help him with the subtle aspect of throwing to receivers at the proper moment as well.
The quarterback must develop enough chemistry with his receivers so the timing and comfort level are just right to produce a smooth play that can go a long way. Garbers will be in his third year as a starter, and Cal returns nine of its top 10 receivers from 2019.
"I talk about chemistry a lot," Remigio said. "I really think it's something that's not emphasized enough when explaining a better and more efficient offense."
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2. Does the offensive scheme put explosive players in position to make big plays?
This is Bill Musgrave's responsibility as offensive coordinator. Since he has been an offensive coordinator with six NFL teams as well as Virginia, you would expect that he knows every trick there is in terms of putting key players in position to make big plays by way of formation, scheme and play-calling.
Musgrave must figure out ways to get receivers free behind the defense or in space with room to run. And at Cal he must do it without the use of players with blazing speed.
"He's a mastermind," Remigio said. "He's really whipping up some cool stuff I have never seen before. I'm really mind-blown with the different installs that have been going in and the different variations, really of all the different plays and formations we have."
Creating situations where running backs can break away for major yardage is also part of Musgrave's task.
Whether Musgrave can adequately install his system and principles in his first season despite just four spring practices and an uncertain preseason camp remains to be seen.
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3. Are explosive players present?
This is the most important factor, and this is a product of recruiting. The roster needs players who simply have the speed or shiftiness to elude defenders. Virtually any scheme can look good with players like that.
Does Cal have such players?
Wide receiver Kekoa Crawford (No. 11 in the cover photo) returns after averaging an impressive 17.0 yards per reception last season, but injuries limited him to six games. Makai Polk became a threat late in his freshman season, averaging 20.3 yards on his nine receptions in the final two games.
Nikko Remigio, the team's leading receiver, also made some big plays, mostly as a punt returner, averaging 11.5 yards per return last season.
The team's leader in yards per reception, surprisingly, was tight end Jake Tonges, who averaged 20.2 yards on his 13 catches and may be the team's best big-play threat this season based on the kind of defenders likely to cover him.
Cal brings in four freshman wide receivers, and Jeremiah Hunter (more than 50 career touchdowns in high school) and Mason Mangum (second place in the 110 hurdles at the 2019 Texas state meet) might get a look as big-play threats.
In the run game, DeShawn Collins, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry in 2019, may be the best hope for a chunk play on the ground, although power back Christopher Brown Jr. has some speed.
The bottom line is that Cal does not seem to have anyone with the speed and escapability exhibited by two of Cal's best big-play threats in the past 15 years: running back Jahvid Best (8.1 yards per carry in 2008) and wide receiver DeSean Jackson (18.0 yards per reception and 18.2 yards per punt return in 2006).
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Conclusion
It will be up to Musgrave to create the kind of matchups that render explosive plays. The Bears don't seem to have a player who is going to scare defenses each time he touches the ball.
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Click here for Part 1, Rushing Offense
Click here for Part 2, Rushing Defense
Click here for Part 3, Passing Offense
Click here for Part 4, Passing Defense
Click here for Part 6, Special Teams
Click here for Part 7, Momentum, Expectations, Schedule, Depth
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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
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