Pac-12 Bowl Projections: Oregon Gets More CFP Support Than Washington

The 13 websites we cite that post bowl projections give more support to Oregon than Washington in the race for a College Football Playoff berth, but what is interesting is that two experts this week predict that Cal will be in bowl game.

One site -- College Football Network -- projects that Cal will earn a berth in the Independence Bowl against BYU. Another expert -- Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury-News -- predicts that the Golden Bears will earn a berth in an at-large bowl without naming the bowl or an opponent. Cal (4-6) would have to win its final two games -- at Stanford this week and on the road against UCLA the following week -- to become bowl-eligible, but there is a chance.

However, you may want to take the College Football Network's prediction regarding Cal with a grain of salt because that site also has both Washington and Oregon in the CFP national semifinal games, something that seems unlikely.

Wilner's projection has credibility, however, since he focuses on the Pac-12 and is a reliable reporter.

Michigan is the only school projected to land in a CFP national semifinal game by all experts, while Georgia and Florida State are pegged for a national semifinal berth by all but one site.

Oregon is projected to land in a CFP game by eight of our experts, while Washington is picked to be in a CFP national semifinal game by three sites. Three sites have neither Pac-12 school in the College Football Playoff, while three predict Texas will land a CFP berth and one projects that Alabama will reach the national semifinals.

Here are the Pac-12 and CFP bowl projections of the 12 sites, with Pac-12 bowl affiliations noted at the end of this article.

ESPN (Kyle Bonagura)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Penn State

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. North Carolina State

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force

Comment:

There are still too many variables to account for every possibility here, but most of them can be guided by the CFP rankings. Oregon, as the top-ranked one-loss team, is in a good spot if it wins out. Washington and Florida State have slim margins for error, but a regular-season loss would be tough to overcome -- especially for the Seminoles.

ESPN (Mark Schlabach)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. North Carolina State

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Duke

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force

Comment:

I stuck with Oregon over Washington as my No. 3 team despite the Huskies' head-to-head victory over the Ducks earlier this season. Oregon has been the more impressive team to me, especially on defense. The good news is they might get to settle the debate by meeting up again in the Pac-12 championship game. The Huskies have a tricky game at Oregon State next week, followed by a home game against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The Ducks play at Arizona State before meeting the Beavers in their rivalry game.

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane

Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Illinois

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Utah vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV

The Sporting News (Bill Bender)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Georgia

Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas

Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Illinois

Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Miami-Fla.

Sun Bowl – UCLA vs. North Carolina State

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force

Comment:

The Pac-12 has Washington and Oregon on the collision course for a rematch, and if both teams stay at one loss or less the next two weeks then the conference will have a strong argument for a spot. Florida State looks to have a spot, too, unless they lose before the ACC Championship Game, likely against Louisville. All of those teams, however, could have what the Ohio State-Michigan and Alabama-Georgia losers will not.

That is a one-loss team with a conference championship. The committee will not pass those up, and it will make it hard for two teams from one conference to squeeze in unless there is chaos the next two weeks.

The Athletic (Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Duke

Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV

Comment:

In our latest bowl projections, three 13-0 teams — Georia, Michigan and Florida State — join 12-1 Pac-12 champ Oregon in the College Football Playoff semifinals, sending 12-1 Big 12 champ Texas to the Cotton Bowl and 11-1 Ohio State to the Orange Bowl.

We are picking Oregon State to knock off Washington in Corvallis this weekend, lifting the Beavers to the Alamo Bowl and thus depriving us of a juicy USC-Oklahoma showdown.

San Jose Mercury-News (Jon Wilner)

(Pac-12 representative only)

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Oregon

Fiesta Bowl -- Washington

Alamo Bowl -- USC

Las Vegas Bowl -- Arizona

Holiday Bowl -- Oregon State

Sun Bowl -- Utah

LA Bowl -- UCLA

At-large bowl -- Cal

Comment:

Given the emergence of an effective offense in Berkeley and the recent struggles experienced by the Cardinal and Bruins, the Hotline currently projects Cal to win out and salvage a bowl berth. As an at-large team, the Bears would fill a vacancy in a game not affiliated with the Pac-12..

Athlon Sports (Steven Lassan)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane

Cotton – Oregon vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Duke

Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force

247 Sports (Brad Crawford)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force

College Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Rutgers

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Notre Dame

Sun Bowl – USC vs. Duke

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force

Independence Bowl – Cal vs. BYU

Action Network (Brett McMurphy)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Maryland

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Utah vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV

USA Today (Erick Smith)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Penn State

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Virginia Tech

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Fresno State

Fox Sports (Bryan Fischer)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Maryland

Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. North Carolina State

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV

College Football News

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Texas

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Alabama

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Penn State

Peach Bowl – Oregon vs. Ohio State

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma

Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. North Carolina

Sun Bowl – Utah vs. North Carolina State

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. UNLV

Pac-12 bowl affiliations:

College Football Playoff Semifinal – Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif., January 1) or Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, January 1): If Selected

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.), Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami Gardens, Fla.), Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas) or Peach Bowl (Dec. 30, Atlanta): If Selected.

Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio): vs. Big 12

Las Vegas Bowl (December 23): vs. SEC

Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego): vs. ACC

Sun Bowl (December 29, El Paso, Texas): vs. ACC

LA Bowl (December 16): vs. Mountain West

Independence Bowl (December 16, Shreveport, La.): vs. Big 12

A Pac-12 team could also be selected for one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.)

A Pac-12 team could also be selected for the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.

Cover photo of Cal football by Darren Yamashita, USA TODAY NETWORK

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