Cal Football: ESPN's Power Index Not Kind to Cal, Pac-12 for 2020
ESPN presented its College Football Power Index for the 2020 season, and Cal and the Pac-12 did not rank as high as we might have expected.
Not surprisingly, Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama rank first, second and third in the FPI released on Friday, but the fourth team, Wisconsin, was a bit unexpected.
Cal is well down the list at No. 42, with a projection that the Bears would win 6.2 games and lose 5.8. Rounded off that means Cal would finish with a .500 record at 6-6. That would constitute a disappointing 2020 season for the Bears if it comes to pass.
More concerning is that Cal ranks only fourth among Pac-12 North schools, behind Oregon (No. 8), Washington (No. 28) and Stanford (No. 31). The Bears expect to be behind Oregon in projections for the coming season, but they would like to think they will finish ahead of Washington and certainly believe they will be better than Stanford.
This is in stark contracst to an CBS Sports story that projects Cal to go 11-1 in 2020.
Cal’s No. 42 FPI ranking is higher than the No. 52 FPI ranking the Bears received at the end of the 2019 season, but they expect to be considerably better in 2020, if and when the 2020 season is played.
Many of the key components of the Cal team that finished 8-5 last season are returning in 2020. Most of the offense is back, including quarterback Chase Garbers, and the Bears added offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, which should help. (See Musgrave video below on the new offense.) Although the Bears lost three significant defensive players (safeties Ashtyn Davis and Jaylinn Hawkins and linebacker Evan Weaver, all of whom were selected in the recent NFL draft), they should be solid defensively as well.
The Pac-12 did not fair well in the 2020 FPI either, although that does not come as a shock. The Pac-12 has not had a representative in the four-team College Football Playoff in any of the past three seasons, and it is a long shot that a Pac-12 team will get in 2020.
The Playoff Predictor gives the Pac-12 only a 28% chance of getting a team into the College Football Playoff in 2020. More troubling is the projection that the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference are more likely to get two teams into the CFP than the Pac-12 is to get one.
If you are interested in learning how the FPI is determined, click here.
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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
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