Cal Football: Where Do You Stand on a Five-Win Over/Under Total for the Bears in 2021?

How many games will the Cal football team win next fall?

The website SportsBettingDime.com sets the over-under for the Bears at five victories. A modest total, to be sure, even considering Cal was just 1-3 last season.

Expectations for the Bears in 2020 were much higher. They envisioned themselves as legitimate contenders for the Pac-12 North title.

And if that seemed perhaps ambitious, well, why not? After all, they closed a COVID-ravaged schedule with a victory over Pac-12 champion Oregon, an indication of their potential.

The prognosticators look at that 1-3 record — and an offense that has consistently resided at or near the bottom of the Pac-12 the past several years — and base their picks to some degree on that recent history.

My take is that last year is not a reliable a gauge for anything — too much weird stuff happened, too many players were forced to sit out. Everyone dealt with these issues, not just Cal, but the Bears would have been a better team with a full spring practice, without the endless summer and fall delays, with a largely intact roster.

What matters is what they can do this season.

Finally with a full spring practice and — we assume — a normal fall camp, the offense should improve under second-year offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. He has a senior quarterback in Chase Garbers and experience across the board.

So let’s separate Cal’s 2021 games into three categories: Likely to win, likely to lose, up for grabs.

Likely to win

Sept. 4 vs. Nevada at home (Won’t be easy, but a game Cal must win)

Sept. 18: vs. Sacramento State at home (Hornets are an FCS opponent)

Oct. 2: vs. Washington State at home (WSU winless in Berkeley since ’05)

Oct. 23: vs. Colorado at home (First meeting vs. CU since 2018)

Oct. 30 vs. Oregon State at home (Bears should end 2-game skid vs. OSU)

Nov. 6: vs. Arizona at Tucson (Wildcats may be the Pac-12’s worst)

Likely to lose

Sept. 25: vs. Washington at Seattle (Cal has won 3 of past 5 vs. UW, but . . .)

Oct. 15: vs. Oregon at Eugene (Bears have lost 6 in a row at Autzen)

Nov. 13 vs. USC at home (Trojans are 15-1 in past 16 meetings)

Up for grabs

Sept. 11: vs. TCU at Fort Worth, TX (Bears will be underdogs)

Nov. 20 vs. Stanford at Stanford (Cal gave away 2020 Big Game)

Nov. 27 vs. UCLA at Pasadena (A third straight meeting at the Rose Bowl)

So, I’ve got Cal winning six times. Are those all locks? Heck no.

Let’s say they win five of those six and win just one of the three I labeled as up for grabs. That equation gets the Bears to six wins, even if they prevail just once in the six toughest games of the season.

My verdict on five wins as the over/under: I’m taking the over.

Here’s more from SportsBettingDime.com:

@SBD ODDS TO WIN THE 2021 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Alabama +400

2. Clemson +600

3. Ohio State +750

4. Georgia +1000

5. Oklahoma +1250

6. Iowa State +4300

7. Texas A&M +4400

8. Notre Dame +4900

9. Texas +5200

10. Florida +5600

11. Oregon +5700

12. LSU +5700

13. USC +5800

14. North Carolina +6300

15. Penn State +6500

16. Miami Florida +8000

17. Wisconsin +9200

18. Michigan +9500

19. Auburn +12000

20. Indiana +12500

21. Arizona State +17500

22. Oklahoma State +17500

23. Cincinnati +19000

24. Iowa +20000

25. Tennessee +20000

@SBD PAC-12 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

1. Oregon 9.5

2. USC 8.5

3. Arizona State 8.5

4. Stanford 6.5

5. Washington 6.5

6. Utah 6.5

7. UCLA 6.0

8. California 5.0

9. Washington State 4.5

10. Colorado 4.5

11. Oregon State 5.0

12. Arizona 4.0

@SBD BIG TEN OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

1. Ohio State 10.5

2. Penn State 8.5

3. Wisconsin 8.0

4. Indiana 7.5

5. Northwestern 7.5

6. Michigan 7.0

7. Iowa 7.0

8. Minnesota 6.0

9. Nebraska 5.5

10. Purdue 5.5

11. Maryland 5.0

12. Michigan State 4.5

13. Rutgers: 3.5

14. Illinois 3.5

@SBD SEC OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

1. Alabama 11.0

2. Georgia 9.5

3. Texas A&M 9.0

4. Florida 8.0

5. LSU 7.5

6. Mississippi State 7.5

7. Missouri 7.0

8. Auburn 6.5

9. Kentucky 6.5

10. Tennessee 6.5

11. Arkansas 6.0

12. Ole Miss 6.0

13. South Carolina 4.5

14. Vanderbilt 3.5

@SBD ACC OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

1. Clemson 11.5

2. North Carolina 8.5

3. Virginia Tech 7.5

4. Wake Forest 7.5

5. Miami 7.0

6. Virginia 7.0

7. Louisville 6.5

8. Florida State 6.5

9. Boston College 6.0

10. Pittsburgh 6.0

11. North Carolina State 5.5

12. Georgia Tech 5.0

13. Duke 4.5

14. Syracuse 4.0

@SBD BIG 12 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

1. Oklahoma 11.0

2. Iowa State 10.0

3. Oklahoma State 8.0

4. Texas 8.0

5. TCU 6.5

6. Texas Tech 6.5

7. West Virginia 6.0

8. Baylor 5.5

9. Kansas State 5.0

10. Kansas 2.5

Cover photo of Cal quarterback Chase Garbers by Peter Fukumae, USA Today

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo

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