What's Cal's Next Move With the Pac-12 in Transition?
Jon Wilner, a San Jose Mercury-News reporter and an expert in Pac-12 sports, was asked about the conference fate of Cal and Stanford with USC, UCLA and Colorado leaving the Pac-12 next summer. His Saturday answer concluded with this:
The Cardinal and Bears cannot compete as Independents for financial and competitive reasons — only Notre Dame can thrive in that role — and the Ivy league isn’t an option. (Check back in 15-20 years on that, however.)
We believe their fate is tied to Oregon and Washington, either in the current Pac-12, in a reconfigured Pac-12 or in the Big Ten.
The Big Ten doesn't seem to be interested in expanding further in the near future, and in the meantime a perfect storm of events has put Cal athletics in an uncomfortable and uncertain position regarding its Pac-12 situation.
Presumably, Cal officials are considering their options, with these things in mind:
---With Colorado, USC and UCLA leaving the conference in the summer of 2024, the Pac-12 will be down to nine members a year from now if it does not add schools. Arizona, Arizona State and/or Utah might now consider joining the Big 12, which would further cripple the Pac-12, whose mere existence is in jeopardy.
---Cal chancellor Carol Christ is scheduled to retire in June 2024, leaving the conference question up to a successor who may or may not be equipped to handle it. Cal athletic director Jim Knowlton would have to play a major role in the conference-affiliation issue.
---The Pac-12 has not yet announced a long-awaited media-rights deal. Pac-12 school officials have to be getting itchy, and if the deal is not as lucrative as the deals of comparable conferences, Cal's financial situation will suffer and its faith in the Pac-12 will deteriorate.
---George Kliavkoff was hired as Pac-12 commissioner in May 2021 in large part because of his experience in negotiating media deals. But recent events have not left a favorable impression of Kliavkoff.
---Cal's fate seems to be tied to that of rival Stanford, as the two Bay Area schools seem likely to make any conference move together. And Stanford president Marc Tessier-Lavigne is stepping down next month.
---Cal and Stanford are not attractive schools in terms of their recent performances in the two biggest revenue sports -- football and men's basketball. The Bears have had losing conference records in 13 straight football seasons, and they went 3-29 in men's basketball this past season. Stanford has gone nine straight basketball seasons without an NCAA tournament berth, and its football team is picked to finish last in the Pac-12 this season.
---The ACC seems to be interested in expanding, but would Cal and/or Stanford consider joining a conference that would require cross-country travel? Not likely.
The one positive for Cal and Stanford is that they are in the sixth-largest media market, and that counts for a lot in terms of appeal to other conferences.
The conference situation Cal faces will not be fully outlined until the terms of the media-right deal are announced and until it becomes clear whether the Pac-12 will add or lose more schools. And Kliavkoff could restore faith in his skills based on his actions over the next several months.
In the meantime, there will be some anxious moments in Berkeley.
Cover photo of Cal lineman Matthew Cindric at Pac-12 media day is by Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports
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