Cal Football: ESPN Isn't Excited About Bears' 2020 Pac-12 Prospects
Cal football has received a lot of offseason love from various prognosticators. Athlon picked the Bears to finish second in the Pac-12 North and post nine overall victories. CBS Sports said Cal would go 11-1, beat Oregon and win the tiebreaker for the North title.
Now ESPN has weighed in, and the Worldwide Leader isn't quite as sold on the Bears.
ESPN is projecting the Bears to finish in a three-way tie for third (through fifth) place in the North, along with Washington State and Stanford, below North champ Oregon and runner-up Washington.
The site’s predictions were published before the Pac-12 announced Friday that non-conference games would be scrapped. ESPN envisioned Cal going 4-5 in the conference, just 6-6 overall, which suggests it anticipated a home loss to TCU.
That’s no matter now, with no non-conference games on the schedule.
But 4-5 in Pac-12 games and tied for third place?
Sounds a lot like 2019.
In fact, author Bill Connelly of ESPN rates Cal just eighth among Pac-12 teams, using an SP+ statistical efficiency projection formula that he developed and is based on three factors: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
Not surprisingly, Connelly’s top three teams nationally in the preliminary SP+ ratings are Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson.
The top-rated Pac-12 teams on his chart at No. 13 Oregon and No. 15 USC.
Cal is No. 52, just behind No. 47 WSU and No. 48 Stanford.
We won’t know until possibly July 31 whether the Pac-12 intends to reshuffle schedules, perhaps even making it an 11-game round-robin arrangement with only conference games.
Here’s how Connelly projects the Pac-12:
Pac-12 North predictions
Oregon 7-2
Washington 6-3
Washington State 4-5
Stanford 4-5
Cal 4-5
Oregon State 3-6
Connelly on the Ducks: “Oregon appears to once again be the Pac-12's most sturdy program and its best hope at a CFP run.”
Pac-12 South predictions
USC 6-3
Utah 6-3
Arizona State 5-4
UCLA 4-5
Arizona 3-6
Colorado 2-7
Connelly on the Trojans, whom he says will win the tie-breaker vs. Utah: “USC is 13-12 over the past two years and doesn't have a recruiting profile to prop it up anymore. And the Trojans are projected to win the South all the same. Never tell me numbers don't have a sense of humor.”
As far as Cal, here are five players he says are the program’s best: LB Cameron Goode, QB Chase Garbers, LB Kuony Deng, RT Jake Curhan, DE Zeandae Johnson. We would argue that CB Camryn Bynum belongs in that group.
Connelly begins his analysis of the Bears with the acknowledgement that a series of injuries had significant impact in 2019:
Injuries can render a season's worth of data somewhere between questionable and worthless.
At the moment Cal quarterback Chase Garbers went down with a shoulder injury, the Golden Bears were 4-0 and tied with Arizona State, 7-7. After starting the season 64th in SP+, they were up to 49th.
When Garbers returned to the lineup against USC in mid-November, Cal was 5-4 and down to 73rd in SP+. The Bears were on their way to tying the game at 10-10 in the second quarter when he got hurt again. They collapsed and lost 41-17, falling to 82nd. He played the last three games, though, all wins. He looked spectacular in a 15-point Redbox Bowl win over Illinois.
Connelly provides us the often-quoted stat that the Bears were 7-0 when Garbers played the entire game. He also concedes that we are left with a small sample size when discarding the other six games.
Throw in injuries to running back Christopher Brown and wide receiver Kekoa Crawford and the Bears were left “mostly with a team we weren't intended to see.”
If this trio is mostly healthy in 2020, it's fair to think that their No. 52 projection above doesn't quite cover it. After all, Cal is scheduled to return 10 offensive starters, plus two more potentially game-changing receivers in Crawford and sophomore Makai Polk, who caught nine balls for 183 yards in the last two games after catching just 10 in the first 11.
Connelly notes the coach Justin Wilcox’s defense must replace “all-world linebacker Evan Weaver” along with all of its top safeties. “Wilcox has a track record on D, but this one might not be his best.”
Connelly’s conclusion indicates he believes the Bears can be better than his statistical analysis projects.
If they indeed stay healthy and play at a top-40 level, though, then topping last year's win total becomes a distinct possibility. I don't think this is a North dark horse or anything, but Cal has solid odds of topping its projections.
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Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo
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