Cal Football: ESPN's SP+ Ratings Don't Give Much Respect to the Bears

Cal moved up a few spots from where it was in February, but the Golden Bears still rank in the lower half of the Pac-12

Cal fans had high hopes for the 2020 football season, making the cancellation of the fall season hard to swallow. But if you put any trust in ESPN's SP+ ratings you might not be so disappointed that Cal is not playing in the fall while clinging to the possibility of playing spring football.

ESPN rated and ranked all 130 FBS teams -- even the ones not playing in the fall -- and provided this brief explanation of its methodology:

What follows are updated 2020 (or shall we say, 2020-21) SP+ ratings. They are based on the same factors as the February projections -- returning production, recent history and recruiting -- and they are updated for all transfers and opt-outs as of the afternoon of Aug. 31. 

Cal fans might be buoyed by the fact that Cal improved its ranking from the SP+ ratings released in February, although neither Cal rating is particularly impressive.

Back in February, the Golden Bears were ranked 52nd in the country, putting the Bears behind the likes of Louisiana (not Louisiana State; this is the one in Lafayette, La., known as the Ragin' Cajuns). Cal was ranked eighth among Pac-12 schools.

In the ESPN SP+ rating released this week, Cal moved up six spots to No. 46, one spot ahead of Louisiana, but still just seventh in the Pac-12, one rung  behind Stanford.

Granted it doesn't mean anything -- if fact it means less than nothing since Cal won't be playing at all during the fall -- but it is noteworthy where such ratings place the Golden Bears despite returning most of their key players from its 8-5 season in 2019.

Here is how the Pac-12 schools were ranked (with their overall ranking in parentheses). You will note that no Pac-12 team was ranked in the top 10:

1. Oregon (12)

2. Washington (15)

3. USC (16)

4. Utah (26)

5. Arizona State (42)

6. Stanford (45)

7. Cal (46)

8. Washington State (55)

9. UCLA (59)

10. Oregon State (70)

11. Colorado (85)

12. Arizona (94)

Ohio State is on top in these rankings, but the Buckeyes won't stay there because the Big Ten is not playing fall football. Whether Ohio State will  play football in the winter or spring remains a contentious point.

If you are interested, Bill Connelly of ESPN provided the following definition of SP+ ratings last December:

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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