ESPN'S FPI Reveals Game-by-Game Projections for Cal's 2021 Season

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) recently revealed its game-by-game projections for each FBS team during the 2021 season. It projected how each of Cal’s 12 regular-season games will play out, providing a percentage chance the Bears would win each game.

There is a contradiction in these FPI projections, as we will note at the end of the story. A brief explanation of the data used to create the FPI is also provided at the end.

Here are the FPI projections of each Cal game:

Sept. 4, vs. Nevada at Berkeley

Chance of Cal victory: 66 percent

Nevada’s 2020 record: 7-2 (6-2 Mountain West)

Comment: The Wolf Pack is considered a strong contender for the Mountain West title, and returning Nevada quarterback Carson Strong was named the Mountain West offensive player of the year in 2020.

Cal’s projected record after one game: 1-0

Sept. 11, vs. TCU at Fort Worth, Texas

Chance of Cal victory: 11.2 percent

TCU’s 2020 record: 6-4 (5-4 Big 12)

Comment: Dual-threat QB Mac Duggan returns for TCU, which beat Cal 10-7 in overtime in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl.

Cal’s projected record after two games: 1-1

Sept. 18, vs. Sacramento State at Berkeley

Chance of Cal victory: 90.8 percent

Sacramento State’s 2020 record: Sac State did not play football in 2020 and declined to play in the Big Sky’s spring football season.

Comment: Former Cal quarterback Troy Taylor is the head coach for Sac State, an FCS school that lost to Cal in its only two meetings, in 2005 and 2014.

Cal’s projected record after three games: 2-1

Sept. 25, vs. Washington at Seattle

Chance of Cal victory: 16.2 percent

Washington’s 2020 record: 3-1 (3-1 Pac-12)

Comment: Cal’s schedule game against Washington last year was canceled because of COVID-19 issues in the Cal program. The Huskies finished first in the Pac-12 North but could not compete in the conference championship game because of COVID issues within its program.

Cal’s projected record after four games: 2-2.

Oct. 2, vs. Washington State at Berkeley

Chance of Cal victory: 58.9 percent

Washington State’s 2020 record: 1-3 (1-3 Pac-12)

Comment: Cal’s 2020 game at Washington State was canceled less than two hours before kickoff because of COVID-19 issues on the Cal team.

Cal’s projected record after five games: 3-2

Oct. 15, vs. Oregon at Eugene, Oregon

Chance of Cal victory: 9.8 percent

Oregon’s 2020 record: 4-3 (3-2 Pac-12)

Comment: Cal’s only win of 2020 came Oregon in the Bears’ final game. Oregon won the Pac-12 title last year, but starting quarterback Tyler Shough transferred to Texas Tech.

Cal’s projected record after six games: 3-3

Oct. 23, vs. Colorado at Berkeley

Chance of Cal victory: 52.1 percent

Colorado’s 2020 record: 4-2 (3-1 Pac-12)

Comment: Cal has not faced Colorado since 2018. Buffaloes quarterback Sam Noyer, a second-team all-Pac-12 pick, transferred to Oregon State.

Cal’s projected record after seven games: 4-3

Oct. 30, vs. Oregon State at Berkeley

Chance of Cal victory: 63.0 percent

Oregon State’s 2020 record:

Comment: Cal has lost to Oregon State each of the past two seasons, and Sam Noyer could win a four-player battle to be the Beavers’ starting quarterback.

Cal’s projected record after eight games: 5-3

Nov. 6, vs Arizona at Tucson, Arizona

Chance of Cal victory: 56.4 percent

Arizona’s 2020 record: 0-5 (0-5 Pac-12)

Comment: Wildcats have a new coach (Jedd Fisch) and will have a new quarterback, but they have beaten Cal five times in a row, with the most recent meeting coming in 2018.

Cal’s projected record after nine games: 6-3

Nov. 13, vs. USC at Los Angeles

Chance of Cal victory: 25.6 percent

USC’s 2020 record: 5-1 (5-0 Pac-12)

Comment: USC’s only 2020 loss came against Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans were not scheduled to play Cal last year in the reconfigured 2020 slate, but have won 14 of the last 15 meetings against the Bears.

Cal’s projected record after 10 games: 6-4

Nov. 20, vs. Stanford at Stanford, California

Chance of Cal victory: 27.0 percent

Stanford’s 2020 record: 4-2 (4-2 Pac-12)

Comment: Cal lost to Stanford by one point last season on a blocked extra point. All four of the Cardinal’s wins in 2020 were by five points or fewer.

Cal’s projected record after 11 games: 6-5

Nov. 27, vs. UCLA at Los Angeles

Chance of Cal victory: 27.2 percent

UCLA’s 2020 record: 3-4 (3-4 Pac-12)

Comment: UCLA beat Cal in the Bears’ 2020 opener, but the Bruins finished with a losing record for the fifth straight season.

Cal's projected record after 12 games: 6-6

Notes:

---The FPI projects Cal to finish with a 6-6 record in its game-by-game assessment, but projects Cal to go 5-7 (5.1-7.0 specifically) when it considers the Cal season as a whole. That overall projections also gives Cal just a 37.5 percent chance of winning at least six games.

That apparent contradiction may be due to the fact that three of Cal’s projected wins are by narrow margins. The Bears have less than a 60 percent chance to win in three of their projected victories, including a razor-thin 52.1 percent chance to beat Colorado. Meanwhile, Cal has a no better than 27.2 percent chance to win any of the games it is projected to lose.

---It is surprising that FPI projects that Cal has a less than 30 percent chance to beat either Stanford or UCLA.

---A brief explanation of how the FPI is compiled:

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

Cover photo of TCU quarterback Max Duggan by Tim Heitman, USA TODAY Sports

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