ESPN Football Power Index Says Cal has 1% Chance to Win Pac-12 in 2022

ESPN recently posted its Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2022 season, and the formula was not kind to Cal.

The FPI combines several factors, which we will detail later, to produce a prediction of how college football teams will fare in 2022.

ESPN's FPI ranked Cal No. 70 in the nation, with a prediction of 5.5 wins and 6.5 losses, which suggests the Bears will finish either 5-7 or 6-6. That's not as optimistic as Cal fans would hope, but with all the questions the Bears are facing this spring it is not altogether surprising.

Cal does not even know who its quarterback will be, although Purdue transfer Jack Plummer is the presumed favorite. Uncertainties at wide receiver, linebacker, running back and defensive line further complicate predictions for Cal's 2022 season.

Perhaps more disappointing to Cal fans is that the FPI gives the Bears only a 4.7% chance to win the Pac-12 North and a 1% chance of taking the conference title.

It gives Cal a 0% chance of making the four-team College Football Playoff for the national championship. Zero? Not even one-in-a-million?

Cal is not the lowest ranked team in the Pac-12, which has no teams among the top 10 in the FPI rankings and just one in the top 20. Here's how the Pac-12 teams are ranked by ESPN's FPI, with its national ranking in parentheses and its predicted record after that.: You will note that some teams have better predicted records than teams ranked ahead of them. That's a product of their strength of schedule.

1. Utah (15) -- 9.3 wins, 3.2 losses

2. Oregon (23) -- 8.6-4.1

3. UCLA (34) -- 8.7-3.5

4. USC (37) -- 7.9-4.3

5. Arizona State (41) -- 7.7-4.5

6. Washington (50) -- 7.3-4.8

7. Oregon State (57) -- 6.0-6.0

8. Stanford (61) -- 4.9-7.1

9. Cal (70) -- 5.5-6.5

10. Washington State (79) -- 4.7-7.3

11. Colorado (86) -- 3.2-8.8

12. Arizona (89) -- 3.5-8.5

If Cal is expected to finish 5-7, which games would it be predicted to win and lose?

UC Davis -- Win

UNLV -- Win

at Notre Dame -- Lose

Arizona -- Win

at Washington State -- Win

at Colorado -- Win

Washington -- Lose

Oregon -- Lose

at USC -- Lose

at Oregon State -- Lose

Stanford -- Lose

UCLA -- Lose

That looks like a 5-1 start before losing six in a row.

If the prediction is 6-6, the additional win would be the home game against Stanford.

The FPI is more accurate after it has a few games in the given season to predict the remaining games.

In compiling its preseason predictions, FPI uses the following procedure:

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

Click here for details on how FPI uses the four components in its calculations.

Cover photo of Justin Wilcox by Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports

Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by searching: @si.calsportsreport or going to https://www.facebook.com/si.calsportsreport