Cal Football: Can Chase Garbers Duplicate Davis Mills' Ascent in the NFL Draft?
The NFL draft is always something of a crapshoot. Who knew six months ago that Stanford quarterback Davis Mills — who played a total of 14 college football games — would be taken in the third round this spring?
Could this happen a year from now for Cal’s Chase Garbers?
Projecting the 2022 NFL draft, still more than 11 months off, is more educated guesswork than science. We found eight so-called “way-too-early” mock drafts for next year. They included 19 different players ranked among the top-10 quarterback prospects.
North Carolina’s Sam Howell, who has passed for 7,227 yards with 68 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions his first two seasons, is something of a consistent top pick among quarterbacks. Six of the eight mocks have him at the top of their lists.
But Walter Football, which has been projecting the draft for years, has Texas Tech’s Tyler Shough, the former Oregon quarterback, at No. 1. Howell is fourth on its chart.
And Fan Nation goes with Malik Willis, who threw just 14 passes in two seasons at Auburn before transferring to Liberty, where he passed for 2,260 yards and ran for 944 more while totaling 35 touchdowns through the air and ground.
And Garbers?
He made only Walter Football’s list, checking in at No. 10, right behind Layne Hatcher, who directed mighty Arkansas State to a 4-7 record last season.
Cal coach Justin Wilcox, while qualifying his remarks by saying he can’t speak for NFL teams, is eager to see what Garbers can do as a senior.
“I think Chase is poised for a really big season,” Wilcox said in the video at the top of this story. "I think he’s having a great offseason. I know he’ll have a great summer and fall camp, and be prepared to have the best season he’s had since he’s been here. Which is what you’d expect from a senior quarterback.”
Wilcox said NFL teams don’t typically offer specifics on what they want to see from a quarterback, but that it’s generally a player who can move the team, win games, throw with accuracy and make good decisions.
Garbers is 14-5 in games where he’s played more than a half, although defense has carried the Bears in recent seasons. Garbers is a 61-percent career passer, which is solid but hardly exceptional in this day and age.
He has thrown more than twice as many TDs (34) and interceptions (16) in his 25 career appearances (23 as a starter) and he can scramble out of trouble. But the Cal offense ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in scoring last season and last the year before.
Clearly, there is room for growth, although it doesn’t all fall on Garbers.
“We’ve got to do a great job around him,” Wilcox said. “It takes everybody — not just the quarterback. We all know that position is incredibly important and we’ve got to support him.”
Here’s how eight early mock drafts envision the quarterback picture next spring:
* WALTER FOOTBALL - April 19
1. Tyler Shough, Texas Tech
2. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
3. Kedon Slovis, USC
4. Sam Howell, North Carolina
5. Brock Purdy, Iowa
6. Tanner Morgan, Minnesota
7. Sean Clifford, Penn State
8. Emory Jones, Florida
9. Layne Hatcher, Arkansas State
10. Chase Garbers, Cal
* NFL DRAFT ROOM - April 25
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
3. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
4. Kedon Slovis, USC
5. Bo Nix, Auburn
Note: Only first-round selections
* SPORTING NEWS - May 1
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
3. Kedon Slovis, USC
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
5. Tyler Shough, Texas Tech
6. JT Daniels, Georgia
7. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
8. Jayden Daniels, ASU
9. Brock Purdy, Iowa State
10. Malik Willis, Liberty
* COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEWS - May 3
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
3. JT Daniels, Georgia
4. Kedon Slovis, USC
5. Tyler Shough, Texas Tech
6. Carson Strong, Nevada
7. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
8. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
9. Phil Jurkovec, Boston College
10. Brock Purdy, Iowa
* NBC SPORTS- May 3
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. JT Daniels, Georgia
3. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
4. Kedon Slovis, USC
Note: NBC projected only first-round selections
* BLEACHER REPORT - May 4
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
3. Kedon Slovis, USC
4. JT Daniels, Georgia
5. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
6. Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
7. Tyler Shough, Texas Tech
8. Malik Willis, Liberty
9. Carson Strong, Nevada
10. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
* FAN NATION - May 11
1. Malik Willis, Liberty
2. Sam Howell, North Carolina
3. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
4. Kedon Slovis, USC
5. Carson Strong, Nevada
6. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Note: Fan Nation’s first-round projections include six QBs, topped by Willis at No. 1 overall
* CBS SPORTS - May 13
1. Sam Howell, North Carolina
2. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
3. Malik Willis, Liberty
4. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
5. Kedon Slovis, USC
6. Carson Strong, Nevada
7. Tanner Morgan, Minnesota
Note: CBS included only 7 QBs among its top-100 draft prospects
Cover photo of Chase Garbers by Kelley L. Cox, USA Today
Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo
