If Lions Draft a Quarterback, Will Jared Goff Lose His Starting Job?
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The Detroit Lions have three of the top 34 picks, including the No. 2 overall selection, in this week’s NFL draft, and there have been reports that the Lions could, or at least should, take a quarterback. If they do take a quarterback, what would than mean for former Cal standout Jared Goff, who was the Lions starting quarterback for all but one game in their 3-13-1 season in 2021?
Goff told ESPN.com recently he has "no concern" if Detroit were to take a quarterback in the draft. Of course, there is not much else he can say publicly.
"What do I make of the talk [that Detroit might take a quarterback]? The talk is always just the talk. If it happens, great, I'll deal with it from there and be the best player I can be," Goff said, according to the ESPN.com report. "If it doesn't, you guys probably won't talk about it again, so it's the way the media cycle works. Again, I trust those guys up top. They've expressed confidence in me so I'm excited."
Goff played well late in the 2021 season, helping Detroit win two of the last three games he started. But he knows teams that finish in last place have to make changes.
"I'm always trying to be the best I can be," Goff said. "Always trying to prove myself right and prove the doubters wrong and be the best I can be, but no, any time you win three games there's going to be discussion at a lot of positions, and quarterback's no different. I've had to prove myself every year, every day and work as best I can and be the best I can every day."
Whether Goff should be worried about his starting job might depend on if and when the Lions draft a quarterback. If they take a quarterback with the second overall pick, Goff should be concerned because teams typically don’t select quarterbacks that soon to sit on the bench and learn. Goff could be put on the trading block.
If the Lions take a signal-caller with their 32nd or 34th pick, that player might be expected to be a starter soon, perhaps in the first year, but would not be pressed into service immediately. Goff probably would be expected to be a mentor.
We know Brett Favre did not want to be a mentor to former Cal star Aaron Rodgers when the Packers picked Rodgers in the first round, but would Goff accept that role?
"Yeah, maybe," Goff said, according to the ESPN.com story. "I've always like helping younger guys, but I have no idea. I've never been in that position."
If Detroit takes a quarterback after that 34th pick, that player is likely to be a project who will be a backup for a year or two, unless he shows something exceptional in training camp.
The one thing working in Goff’s favor is that this draft class is not considered strong at the quarterback position. Few are claiming that any of the top quarterback prospects – Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral – is a can’t-miss star.
But an ESPN.com story lists quarterback as the biggest need for the Lions in the draft, and provides this explanation:
Biggest need: Quarterback
If Matthew Stafford proved the importance of context for quarterback success in his Super Bowl win in his first year with the Rams, you can likely guess how things went for his trade counterpart on the Lions. Jarod Goff’s minus-3.6% passing DVOC was his lowest since his rookie year in 2016, and it continued a three-year trend of decline from his peak 2017 and 2018 seasons that saw his lone trip to a Super Bowl.
Recent record extensions for quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson have rendered Goff's annual contract average of $33.5 million palatable. And Goff may even return to above-average efficiency as the Lions add receiving talent such as DJ Chark Jr. and perhaps a 2022 rookie while Amon-Ra St. Brown enters his second season. The Lions will very likely take a swing at the position in the next year or two. And Goff's standard of competence gives the team the buffer to draft a less-ready but higher-ceiling quarterback such as Malik Willis -- a buffer that a more desperate team such as the Panthers might not have.
Prospects who might fit: Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral
For those of you interested, DVOC stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which supposedly measures efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
The Lions reportedly have hosted Liberty's Willis and Pittsburgh's Pickett for pre-draft visits, although we all know that does not mean a lot.
The Lions coaches and front office have voiced support for Goff, but no one has dismissed the possibility of drafting a quarterback somewhere along the line. And when a team goes 3-13-1, quarterback is the first position cited for possible change.
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Cover photo of Jared Goff by Raj Mehta, USA TODAY Sports
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