Cal Included in Betting Odds of Landing QB Jaden Rashada
Cal is not the favorite to land highly touted quarterback Jaden Rashada, but oddsmakers still think the Bears have an outside shot.
Bookies.com this week calculated the odds of four schools' chances of landing Rashada, who was released from his letter of intent with Florida after a reported $13 million deal fell through. Bookies.com notes that its odds are projections and are not available at legal sports betting sites, but they offer a subject for conversation.
Here are the odds of acquiring Rashada:
Arizona State: +140 or 7-to-5. Implied probability: 41.67%
TCU: +180 or 9-to-5. Implied probability: 35.71%
Washington: +400 or 4-to-1. Implied probability: 20%
Cal: +1000 or 10-to-1. Implied probability 9.09%
Other: +2000 or 20-to-1. Implied probability: 4.76%
So this suggests the Golden Bears have about a 1 out of 10 chance to getting Rashada.
A few things to note:
--Rashada is ranked the seventh-best quarterback recruit in the class of 2023 by Rivals and 247Sports.
---Rashada reportedly visited Arizona State last weekend and had a relationship with ASU new head coach Kenny Dillingham, which may be why the Sun Devils are the early favorites. Rashada reportedly is visiting TCU this weekend.
---Bookie.com makes no mention of Colorado, which some reports suggest may be interested in Rashada.
---There has been no indication that Rashada plans a trip to Cal, but he visited Cal during his initial recruitment, and as a Bay Area resident (Pittsburg, Calif.) he is no doubt familiar with what Cal has to offer.
---Part of Rashada’s interest in Cal had to do with his relationship with Bill Musgrave, who was Cal’s offensive coordinator at the time. Musgrave was fired with two games left in the 2022 season and replaced by Jake Spavital.
---It is unclear whether Cal will actively pursue Rashada because the Bears acquired Sam Jackson V as a transfer from TCU. Jackson appears to be the Bears’ choice to be their starting quarterback in 2023, although that was before Rashada became available.
---You would think Rashada will make a choice fairly soon, although there is no declared deadline.
---Cal’s spring semester officially began January 10 and classes started January 17, so presumably Rashada would not be able to enroll at Cal in time to participate in spring workouts.
A couple other reports that may be significant:
Rashada’s name will always be associated with how NIL can go wrong, whether that’s his fault or the fault of the people around him. But the schools that are now in the mix for the quarterback’s services – Washington, TCU, Arizona State, Cal and Colorado – aren’t perceived to big-hitter in the NIL space. Now it feels more like a normal recruitment, where NIL money won’t lead the charge of how this pans out. Now it feels like a Pac-12-dominated recruitment for a Bay Area prospect.
But there is this from the Seattle Times:
While none of Rashada’s existing suitors will likely approach the $13 million deal that reportedly dissolved at Florida, Blake Lawrence (CEO of NIL marketplace Opendorse) told the Times in November, “When it comes to the premier quarterbacks — five-stars or All-Americans — you’re looking at high six figures, low seven figures in annual NIL compensation at Power Five schools.”
Hmm. Would Cal be able – or want – to hand over that amount of NIL compensation? Would that be needed to land Rashada?
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Cover photo of Jaden Rashada with Florida offensive coordinator Rob Sale is by Matt Pendleton, USA TODAY NETWORK
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