Pac-12 Football Notes: USC in Line for CFP Berth
We address four issues in today’s Pac-12 notebook.
USC’s Path to the College Football Playoff
We are stating at the start that we believe USC will be one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff if it beats Notre Dame on Saturday (no sure thing) and wins the Pac-12 championship game (no sure thing).
That would be an impressive double, because the Irish are up to No. 15 this week after beating Boston College 44-0. And USC’s conference title game opponent is likely to be a top 15 too.
Here's USC's CFP situation:
The Trojans were No. 7 in last week’s CFP, but moved up to No. 6 , ahead of Tennessee, which was No. 5 last week but lost decisively to South Carolina and lost Heisman Trophy candidate Hendon Hooker for the rest of the season to boot.
No. 5 LSU is still ahead of USC in this week’s CFP rankings, but it’s a good bet that Tigers will lose to Georgia in the SEC title game, giving LSU three losses.
TCU is No. 4, and presumably will win its final scheduled game against last-place Iowa State this week, but could easily lose the Big 12 championship game, probably against Kansas State. The Horned Frogs are unbeaten but they have been far from dominant.
The loser of the game between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan would still be in contention for a CFP berth. But a 12-1 USC team would seem to have a better resume than an 11-1 Michigan squad.
The only other possible barrier to USC would be once-beaten Clemson winning the ACC title game, but the Tigers' loss to Notre Dame will not be forgotten if the Trojans get by the Irish. At No. 8 in this week's CFP rankings, Clemson has to make up quite a bit of ground to reach the top four.
Bottom line, USC could end up with a No. 3 seed in the four-team national championship race if things fall in its favor. And it a No. 4 seed for the Trojans seems probable.
Most of the reputable site that offer bowl projections predict that USC will be in the College Football Playoff
The key for USC is to win the final two games.
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Conference Title Game Pairings Scenarios
USC has clinched one of the berths in the Pac-12 championship game, to be held Friday, Dec. 2, at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas, but three teams – Oregon, Washington and Utah -- could wind up tied for second place, with each having a shot at getting to Las Vegas.
Oregon is the most likely opponent for USC, which would be intriguing matchup since 1.) they didn’t play each other in the regular season, 2.) they rank third and fourth nationally in scoring offense, 3.) both will be high in the rankings, and 4.) the quarterback battle between USC’s Caleb Williams and Oregon’s Bo Nix, the top two players in the conference, could be thrilling.
Here is the situation (hoping all my interpretations of the tie-breaker scenarios are correct):
All Oregon needs to do to earn the right to play in the Pac-12 title game is beat Oregon State, although that is no gimme, especially in Corvallis, and especially if Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is as hobbled by his ankle injury as he was against Utah.
Even if the Ducks lose, they would advance to the title game if Washington loses to Washington State, which is possible with the Apple Cup being in Pullman this year.
Washington needs a couple things to happen to get to Las Vegas. Not only must it beat Washington State and have Oregon lose, the Huskies also need Cal to beat UCLA. It is the third part of that scenario that may doom the Huskies’ chances. UCLA is coming off a tough loss and Cal is coming off an emotional win, and the game is in Berkeley. But the Bruins are 10-point favorites.
That brings us to Utah, which needs a string of things to happen to get to the title game, but none of them is a reach. Utah must beat Colorado, which is a near lock, then Oregon State must beat Oregon, Washington must defeat Washington State and UCLA must beat Cal. So Utah needs four things to happen to get a chance to defend its conference title, but all four things are within the realm of possibility.
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Coaches Gone But Not Forgotten
The 2022 success of former Pac-12 head coaches has caught our attention. Let’s take a look at what happened to some of them:
Sonny Dykes, Cal/TCU
2016: Fired at Cal following 5-7 season, replaced by current Cal head coach Justin Wilcox
2022: In first year as TCU’s head coach, the Horned Frogs are 10-0 in the hunt for the national championship, ranked No. 4 in last week’s CFP rankings.
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Jim Harbaugh, Stanford/Michigan
2010: Left Stanford to become 49ers head coach after 12-1 season at Stanford.
2022: In his eighth season as Michigan’s head coach, Wolverines are 11-0, ranked No. 3 and in the race for a national championship.
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Jim Mora, UCLA/Connecticut
2016: Fired at UCLA with two games left in a 5-6 season.
2022: In his first season at UConn, Mora has the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time since 2016 with a 6-6 record, and they could avoid a losing record for the first time since 2010. (Even though they are bowl-eligible, the Huskies are not guaranteed a bowl berth, since they do not have a conference affiliation and therefore no tie-in to any bowls.)
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Clay Helton, USC/Georgia Southern
2021: Fired two games into the season, replaced on a permanent basis by current head coach Lincoln Riley.
2022: In his first year as Georgia Southern head coach, his team is 5-6 and needs a win over Appalachian State to become bowl eligible.
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Lane Kiffin, USC/Mississippi
2013: Fired at USC after five games of the 2013 season.
2022: He’s in his third year at Mississippi, and after taking his team to the Sugar Bowl last year, the Rebels are 8-3 and nationally ranked this year.
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Rich Rodriguez, Arizona/Jacksonville State
2017: Fired after six seasons at Arizona, and the Wildcats went to a bowl game in 2017.
2022: In his first season as head coach at Jacksonville State, an FCS school, the Gamecocks finished 9-2 but did not earn a berth in the FCS playoffs.
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Gary Andersen, Oregon State/Weber State
2017: Andersen resigned in his third season as Oregon State’s head coach, six games into the 2017 season.
2022: Andersen is in his second season as a volunteer analyst at Weber State, which earned a berth in this year’s FCS playoffs.
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Kevin Sumlin, Arizona/USFL
2020: He was fired five games into his third season at Arizona, replced on a permanent basis by current coach Jedd Fisch.
2022: As the head coach and general manager of the Houston Gamblers of the USFL pro spring league, his team finished 3-7 this year.
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Nick Rolovich, Washington State/San Marin High School
2021: Rolovich was fired seven games into the 2021 season for failing to satisfy the state-mandated requirement to be vaccinated.
2022: Rolovich is a volunteer assistant coach working with quarterbacks at San Marin High School in Novato, California. That’s in the Bay Area, which is where Rolovich grew up. Last week, he filed a lawsuit against Washington State University and the governor of the state.
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Jeff Tedford, Cal/Fresno State
2012: Fired at Cal following a 3-9 season.
2022: In his first year in his second stint as Fresno State’s head coach, Tedford’s Bulldogs are 7-4 overall and 6-1 in the Mountain West Conference and will face Boise State in the conference championship game.
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Steve Sarkisian, USC/Texas
2015: Sarkisian was fired five games into his second season as USC’s head coach.
2022: In his second season as Texas’ head coach, the Longhorns are 7-4 overall and 5-3 in the Big 12.
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Todd Graham, Arizona State
2017: Fired at Arizona State
2022: Resigned as Hawaii's head coach in January 2022.
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Herm Edwards, Arizona State/ESPN
2022: Fired in his fifth season at Arizona State, three games into the 2022 season.
2022: Edwards will return to ESPN as an NFL and college football analyst, the network announced last week.
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Numbers That Make You Wonder
---Oregon rushed for 313 yards last week and lost. Oregon rushed for 59 yards this week and won.
---Stanford started this weekend ranked dead last in the country in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.99), but Cal did not run the ball a single time in the first quarter on Saturday, passing on its first 14 plays and 23 of its first 24 plays.
---Stanford finished with a 1-8 conference record, its worst since 2006 when the Cardinal finished 1-8 in Walt Harris’ second and final year as the Cardinal’s head coach. This season matches that 2006 season for Stanford’s worst conference mark since 1960, when Stanford went 0-4 in the American Association of Wester Universities.
---Four of the nation’s top seven teams in both total offense and scoring offense are from the Pac-12 (USC, Oregon, UCLA, Washington), but no Pac-12 is among the top 20 in the country in either scoring defense or total defense.
---Oregon State freshman Damien Martinez ran for 138 yards against Arizona State and had rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games. He rushed for just 226 yards over the first six games, but has run for 641 over the past five.
---Oregon has allowed just three sacks this season. Every other team in the country has allowed at least seven. One of the sacks of Ducks quarterback Bo Nix came Saturday against Utah. He had minus-3 yards rushing in that game, showing that he is still hobbled by the ankle injury suffered against Washington. He has 509 rushing yards, and the Ducks will need him to be a running threat against Oregon State and in a possible conference title game.
Top Five Pac-12 Teams
1. USC (10-1, 8-1 Pac-12) -- In the mix for a national championship
2. Oregon (9-2, 7-1) -- Ducks need a win to get a shot at USC
3. Utah (8-3, 6-2) -- Utes' win over USC leaves them near the top
4. Washington (9-2, 6-2) -- Can't forget that loss to Arizona State
5. Oregon State (8-3, 5-3) -- Maybe UCLA should be here, but Beavers have been impressive lately.
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Pac-12 Player of the Years Standings
1. Quarterback Caleb Williams, USC -- He's has become the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, according to some oddmakers. Williams is the favorite at some betting sites, and C.J. Stroud is the favorite in some others.
2. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon -- Even with a bum ankle he led a big win over Utah
3. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington -- He leads the nation in passing yards
4. Running back Zach Charbonnet, UCLA -- Fourth in the nation in rushing and averages 7.25 yards per carry.
5. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA -- Cam Rising's three interceptions this week knocks him out of the top five. And Damien Martinez is on their heels.
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Cover photo of USC by Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports
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