Pac-12 Football Picks: The Title Game We Expected, Just Not How We Expected It

The final week of the Pac-12 schedule features the championship matchup everyone envisioned months ago: Oregon vs. USC for all the marbles.

Of course, the road to this weekend was nothing like anyone imagined.

Oregon (3-2) got a title-game berth despite losing its past two games and finishing second in the North. And USC (5-0) qualified via a series of last-minute Houdini escapes.

There are any number of irregularities this week that no one cannot be pleased with:

— North champ Washington had to bow out of the title game due to COVID-19, giving second-place Oregon a shot, after a bye last week, no less.

— The entire COVID scenario means Pac-12 title game was moved from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas to a school site, in this case USC. And with no fans in the stadium.

— Cal and Arizona had to cancel their final game, in both cases because of COVID.

— Surprising Colorado (4-1), which probably deserved to be upgraded to the title game (rather than Oregon), is left out in the cold with no one to play this week.

But this is what we have in 2020, where anything is possible, including outcomes we could not have dreamed up.

Friday’s championship game does come with some intrigue. Here are five possible scenarios:

Scenario No. 1: USC and Oregon can’t avoid playing a close game, as three of Trojans’ five games were decided by five points or fewer and the last three Oregon games had a final margin of four points or fewer. Once again Kedon Slovis saves the Trojans with a last-minute, game-winning scoring drive – the fourth time in six games he has pulled a great escape – this time for a three-point USC win.

Scenario No. 2: The odds finally catch up to Slovis and the Trojans, who can’t pull off another late comeback win. They have been living on the edge all season, and this time Slovis throws an interception in the final minute of a 27-25 Oregon victory.

Scenario No. 3: Oregon’s defense, which ranks eighth in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and seventh in total defense, can’t contain Slovis, who has found his rhythm. Oregon has lost its last two games and its confidence has slipped. USC’s outstanding wide receivers Tyler Vaughns, Drake London and Amon-Ra St. Brown blitz the Ducks mediocre pass defense for 400 receiving yards and a 33-10 USC win to give USC an unbeaten regular season and berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

Scenario No. 4: Oregon quarterback Tyler Shough, who leads the conference in passer rating, outshines Slovis as Shough’s planned runs and scrambles bamboozle the USC defense. Having last weekend off helps the Ducks recover physically and mentally, and Shough, Travis Dye and CJ Verdell rack up big rushing yards, like Arizona State did in the season opener when the Sun Devils racked up 258 rushing yards against USC. Oregon avoids the turnovers that doomed it against Cal and wins 30-17.

Scenario No. 5: Three hours before the game is scheduled to start, a player for USC tests positive for COVID-19, leaving the Trojans unavailable to play. Colorado is not available to take USC’s place, and the Pac-12 title game is canceled. FOX is furious and must televise infomercials in the Friday night time slot.

All picks against the spread

Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (updated Tuesday lines)

Last week: Jeff 3-1, Jake 1-3

Season: Jake 11-15, Jeff 10-16

Friday

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Oregon (plus-3) at USC (5 p.m., FOX)

Jake: These teams can’t avoid close games, so we’ll take the points. Pick: Oregon

Jeff: USC has no realistic chance of squeezing into the College Football Playoff, but the Trojans might believe they do. And if so, they know they must win big here. Pick: USC

Saturday

Washington State (plus-10.5) at Utah (10:30 a.m., FS1)

Jake: Utah is getting better every week, and the Cougars’ only game since Nov. 14 was a lopsided loss to USC. Pick: Utah

Jeff: Utah has scored more points each week this season. A 17-point road win over Colorado convinces me. Pick: Utah

Stanford (plus-8) at UCLA (4 p.m., ESPN)

Jake: Both teams got better as the season wore on, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be the difference in decisive UCLA win. Pick: UCLA

Jeff: Stanford has won three in a row by a combined total of nine points. They will stay within a touchdown here. Pick: Stanford

Arizona State (minus-8) at Oregon State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Jake: Arizona State is better than its record and is ready to explode again as it did against Arizona. Pick: Arizona State

Jeff: Jermar Jefferson is healthy, Chance Nelson threw three TDs vs. Stanford last week and the Beavers are getting a lot of points in a home game. But they didn’t win 70-7 last week. Pick: Arizona State

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo

Click the "follow" button in the top right corner to join the conversation on Cal Sports Report on SI. Access and comment on featured stories and start your own conversations and post external links on our community page

Add us as a preferred source on Google