Aaron Rodgers' Situation Is Different From Tom Brady's Move
The common narrative surrounding a possible trade of former Cal star Aaron Rodgers is that he could do for any NFL team what Tom Brady did for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The reality is that the situations are different, as Yahoo’s Charles Robinson points out in a column in which he spoke to six NFL front-office people, who gave their opinions anonymously.
The three major differences are as follows:
1. Brady was a free agent and could choose any team.
Rodgers has a no-trade contract, and while he can make his preferences known he may not have a final say on the team to which he is traded.
The Packers would be unwilling to trade Rodgers to any NFC team it might run into during the playoffs. That cuts the list of possible trade partners in half to AFC teams.
Plus a team with a young established quarterback or a team that is rebuilding from the ground up will not want to mortgage its future on a player that may play only two or three more years.
While Brady could identify the pluses and minuses of joining any of the 32 teams, Rodgers can’t just pick a team that he believes will take him to the Super Bowl. He might go to a team that has too may other issues.
2. Brady agreed to a relatively modest contract for an elite quarterback, so he did not break the bank in Tampa Bay, which was allowed to acquire other high-priced talent.
Robinson makes this point with regard to Rodgers:
Several of the executives agreed that an underappreciated part of the Rodgers trade speculation is the requirement of a contract that will likely pay the type of four-year deal loaded with guarantees that's becoming more of a standard for QBs.
One general manager made a tremendous point.
“I don’t know that this is the case, but if he’s already been offered an extension that would make him the highest paid player in the NFL or even close to it, then [the Packers] have already set a floor for expectations before you’ve even gotten to talk to him about it,” the GM said. “I assume if they’ve talked about a contract, he's the league MVP so whatever they’ve exchanged is going to put him at the top [of the NFL]. That’s just the way the top five or six quarterbacks work now. When you’re doing a new deal, you’re trying to reset the last one. So what I’m getting at, I don’t think you’d be acquiring a cheapish contract in terms of whatever his base is the rest of the way. That means you’re going into talks with the Packers already setting the bar and it’s probably at the top.”
How many teams would be willing to work through that? Which brings us to the final point:
3. The Bucs did not have to give up anything to get Brady.
The team that acquires Rodgers would have to weaken itself in other ways – either now or in the future – to get the prized quarterback for a few years. In short, Rodgers’ trade value might not be as high as what is being reported.
The anonymous executives told Robinson that no team may be willing to part with three first-round draft choices and at least one high-caliber starter in exchange for Rodgers, as a lot of speculation has suggested.
Maybe one team would be willing to make such an offer, according to the NFL executives, but that would leave that one team bidding against itself, limiting the Packers’ negotiating power.
The executives suggest that two-first-round and an established player may be all the Packers can get for Rodgers and his limited window.
“I’ve heard that they wouldn’t consider anything less than three [first-rounders],” a GM told Robinson. “Not sure that’s realistic.”
A second executive added: “Maybe a team that [has a] window closing and tries to keep it open a few more years. I don’t see a building team being that interested.”
Beyond these three chief differences, there is the belief that Rodgers, who will turn 38 in December, can play at his current level well into his 40s, like Brady is doing.
Yes, Brady won a Super Bowl at the age of 43, and Rodgers is coming off an MVP season that might have been the best season of his career. So maybe Rodgers would be a wise five- or six-year investment for some team. But a quarterback’s abilities can decline sharply in a short period when he is in that age range, and it’s hard to predict when that decline will occur.
A history note:
On April 20, 1993, the 49ers traded Joe Montana, defensive back David Whitmore and San Francisco's third-round selection in the 1994 NFL Draft in exchange for Kansas City's first-round selection in the 1993 draft. Montana was 37 at the start of the 1993 season, the same age Rodgers will be to start the 2021 season. Montana had been a first-team All-Pro selection in 1989 and 1990, his last two full seasons before the trade. He played just two years for the Chiefs and took them to the playoffs both seasons, but he retired after the 1994 season without getting Kansas City to the Super Bowl.
Granted, Montana’s situation was not identical to Rodgers’. Montana was coming off a serious elbow injury, the 49ers had a star quarterback on their roster (Steve Young) to replace Montana, and quarterbacks are probably more valuable now than they were then. But you get the point.
By the way, Joe Montana was Rodgers’ favorite player when Rodgers was growing up in Northern California as a 49ers fan.
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Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady by Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports
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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53
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