Informed Pac-12 Reporter Gives His Opinion on Where Cal Will Wind Up

It’s been proven over the past few months that no journalist knows more about what’s going on with the Pac-12 than San Jose Mercury-News sports writer Jon Wilner.

So when he gives his opinion of issues related to the conference, it’s worth paying attention.

In his Friday mailbag story, he answered a number of questions about the Pac-12 and potential realignment or mergers. Two of the questions were particularly significant to Cal fans. One dealt with the UC Regents’ possible actions regarding UCLA’s decision to leave the conference while leaving Cal behind, and the other asked for Wilner’s opinion of where Cal would wind up in the conference realignment:

Here are those two questions and answers:

Can you explain what the UC Regents could/would do to block UCLA from leaving? — @theplanetbob

I cannot.

A spokesperson for the University of California Office of the President told the Hotline the board of regents has no authority to prevent the move.

Also, we assume UCLA’s attorneys addressed the legal component before the June 30 announcement.

But the comments Thursday by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who blasted the Bruins for their lack of transparency, suggest the regents might attempt to fight the move.

No other entity in any state — hello, Texas — has been able to stop realignment.

BUT: In California politics, presumptions are for suckers.

Newsom blasts UCLA for lack of transparency, vows action by UC regents:https://t.co/TaDOVIgeyf
— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) July 15, 2022

If you were wondering, Newsom was born in San Francisco, attended Redwood High School in Marin County, and attended Santa Clara University on a partial baseball scholarship. He's a Bay Area sports guy.

The Sports360az.com website, via Fox 11 Los Angeles, added this about the governor:

The Hotline reported on Tuesday that UCLA’s move is on the agenda for the UC regents meeting in San Francisco on July 21.

As governor, Newsom is an ex officio member of the board, which oversees the prestigious university system’s 10 campuses.

When asked about the secretive process that culminated on June 30, Newsom said:

“No big deal, I’m the governor of the state of California. Maybe a bigger deal is I’m the chair of the UC regents. I read about it.

“Is it a good idea? Did we discuss the merits or demerits? I’m not aware that anyone did. So it was done in isolation. It was done without any regental oversight or support …

“I have strong opinions about this, for no other reason than as a member of the regents, we were never consulted, never asked for an opinion, and they didn’t even have the decency to provide (a) heads-up.”

When the dust settles, where will Cal be? — @CpaAspiring

Best guess: With Stanford, either in the reconfigured Pac-12 or the western branch of a larger conference.

Cal’s greatest asset in the realignment game is the Bay Area media market.

The Big 12 wouldn’t poach Arizona, ASU, Colorado, Utah, Washington and Oregon without tacit support from one of the major networks (Fox or ESPN).

And in our view, neither entity would want to ignore 2.6 million TV homes in the Bay Area.

Regarding what he means by the “western branch of a larger conference,” Wilner had earlier mentioned the following as one of the possible outcomes for the Pac-12:

At least eight schools merge with the Big 12 to form a western division of a super-conference. (In this scenario, Oregon State and Washington State could be left behind.) Likelihood: 30 percent

So Wilner suggests Cal will pair with Stanford and either become part of a 20-team or 22-team Big 12 or remain in the expanded Pac-12. Well, that seems to be an improvement over earlier suggestions that Cal might no longer have a big-time football program.

Within his mailbag story is one significant quote:

Per a source: “I wouldn’t be surprised if they go the whole season” before the future of the conference is resolved. “There is no rush.”

As we found out in the USC-UCLA departure, agreements could suddenly emerge without any prior notice.

Cover photo by Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports

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