Louisville Should Not Feel Confident Entering Round of 32 After Victory Over USF

The Cardinals still have major issues entering matchup against Michigan State

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac McKneely (10) reacts to a play during the second half against the South Florida Bulls during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

It was the upset that many people were predicting and it nearly came to fruition despite a horrific first half.

Louisville did whatever they wanted against USF on Thursday afternoon in Buffalo until the Bulls finally woke up. The Cards led by 23 points, 62-39, with 12:50 remaining in the second half and then got stagnant, which nearly resulted in a blown lead.

USF started the game 4-of-24 from the field and went 1-for-17 in the first half. It looked like the moment was too big and the chatter around the future of its head coach distracted the team all week.

Then, the offensive juggernaut that proved itself all season in the AAC showed up and exposed the defensive concerns with Louisville.

USF scored 52 points in the second half, making 20-of-42 from the field, but would eventually lose 83-79. Its deficit was too large to overcome

“It was a tsunami,” Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey said of the USF second half run.

“It was the longest ten minutes of my life, there's no question about it. We haven't played against a team like that, that has pressed us like that. So, it was a heck of a test on a really, really big stage.”

The expectation was that the game would be free flowing with two offenses that can really score. USF’s Joseph Pinion finished with 27 points while Izayiah Nelson ended with 22 points.

Despite the absence of Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville got its offensive contributions from Ryan Conwell and Issac McKneely with a combined 41 points.

Now, Louisville will face an athletic and very talented defensive team in Michigan State that will test its ability to win games with its offense. It will need a defensive plan that can slow the Spartans down, something that Kelsey’s team hasn’t shown on a consistent basis this season.

It’s the challenge that lies ahead for Louisville to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Rick Pitino was its head coach in 2014-15.