Where Things Stand For Clemson Basketball's ACC, NCAA Tournament Seeding

March has arrived, and the Clemson Tigers have one game of their regular season remaining before heading into the postseason next week.

After a loss to North Carolina on Tuesday night in Chapel Hill, Clemson fell to fifth in the ACC and needed a lot to happen to get that double-bye spot. That did not happen, with Miami defeating SMU on Wednesday, meaning that the Hurricanes and Tar Heels will be the No. 3 and No. 4 teams, respectively, in the conference tournament next week.

So, where does that leave Clemson, not only for the ACC Tournament next week, but for the NCAA Tournament as well? Here’s what recent projections say, as well as what would be needed to move up or down in the Big Dance

ACC Tournament Projection

Current Position: 5th

Likely Finishing Position: 5th

All Clemson needs to do is defeat Georgia Tech, last place in the ACC, at home to enter the ACC Tournament as the No. 5 seed. If the Tigers lose, then this is where things get tricky.

NC State would be the only team that could leapfrog the Tigers, currently at the No. 7 spot, but because of the head-to-head loss back in January, it would give the Wolfpack the edge. That would move Clemson down to No. 6. NC State hosts Stanford this weekend.

Louisville is also in the mix at 10-7 in the conference, but the Tigers’ win last weekend helps keep them off the No. 7 spot. The Cardinals also face Miami, a tough matchup nevertheless.

As for Clemson’s opponent, the ACC team would have a losing record. The No. 5 seed would play the winner of the No. 12/13 game. If the tournament began today, it would be the winner of Stanford and Syracuse.

However, one thing is for certain: one of the teams will be the worst of Stanford, SMU and Virginia Tech, all currently 8-9 in the conference, and the other would be best of Syracuse and Wake Forest.

The likely position is that No. 5 seed, and if Clemson wins that first game, it would play North Carolina once again for the second time in nine days. It would just be on a neutral court in Charlotte, North Carolina.

If the No. 6 seed ends up being the case, the needle would move up on the top cohort and down on the bottom cohort. The winner of that game would play Miami instead.

ESPN currently give Clemson a 94.5% chance to defeat Georgia Tech on Saturday, and Senior Day festivities will also occur.

NCAA Tournament Projection

Current Position: No. 8 (Lunardi)

Likely Position: No. 7-8

Again, lots of speculation, but to move Clemson up at least a seed line, it will have to get a win in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.

The Tigers’ first game would be on Wednesday, but after that, an opportunity to take away one of their losses against North Carolina or double down against Miami would give Clemson and argument to move up to a No. 7 seed in this case. The Tar Heels are at a No. 6 seed according to Lunardi, while the Hurricanes are at a similar No. 8 seed.

A lot can change by then. North Carolina travels to Duke this weekend for the second game of the historic rivalry, while if Miami takes care of business against Louisville, that would boost its resume.

The only way that the Tigers could drop, of course, is losing that opening game of the tournament. That would only drop them perhaps a seed line, depending on opponent, but it keeps them in the No. 8/9 game that ends up playing the No. 1 seed either way.

Drastic improvement would only occur if Clemson wins the ACC Tournament, which isn’t out of the cards, but matchups against Duke or Virginia could give Brad Brownell’s group trouble. Stranger things have happened, just look at what happened two years ago.

Tipoff for the Tigers’ final regular season game of the season is scheduled for noon from the ACC Network.