What Will Deshaun Watson's Megadeal Look Like?
Deshaun Watson, come on down.
You’re the next contestant on “Pay the Quarterback.”
Now that the biggest name at the most important position on an NFL team, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, got his money, it’s been speculated that Watson, who won a national title at Clemson in 2016, is about to cash in on a huge payday.
What Mahomes got this week is insane. He signed an incredible 10-year extension that will pay him as much as $503 million and keep him with the Kansas City Chiefs seemingly forever...maybe.
It feels similar to the ridiculous contracts MLB teams have been handing out to players like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, and it’s the richest deal ever seen in the NFL. But the man is worth it, and now the Chiefs don’t have to worry about that key position for at least a decade.
So what will Watson, who was a first-round draft pick with Mahomes in 2017, receive from Houston? Well, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl or a league MVP like Mahomes, but Watson has been to as many Pro Bowls and has shown he’s worthy of building a franchise around in his first three seasons in the NFL.
Still, expect a completely different contract structure. According to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Watson’s agent has spoken with the Texans about a shorter-term deal that would be three years added to his current contract, which like Mahomes has two years remaining from the 5-year rookie deal.
Watson is expected to be paid in the range of at least $40 million per season, which would put him second behind Mahomes in the league. But how much he gets in guarantees and how it’s spread out is unknown right now. McClain reported that the Texans are looking to have an extension in place by the start of the 2020 season, which is still expected to be Sept. 10.
There are two non-COVID-19 questions that affect Watson at this time: Will the Dallas Cowboys have QB Dak Prescott signed before July 15? Any deal after that date will have to wait until next March because he was franchised by the Cowboys this offseason. Prescott has reportedly been waiting to see what Mahomes and Watson, who came in the league a year after he did, were getting to drive up his price and/or structure. Prescott and Watson feel much closer financially than Mahomes, so the Texans could wait and see what their in-state brethren do first.
The other issue is what will the salary cap be beyond 2020? It’s widely expected to decrease in 2021. The percentage could be spread out among multiple seasons, which would be beneficial to both owners and players, but it also means now is the time to sign your quarterback and try to defer the money as much as possible.
McClain also suggests that Watson asking for fewer years on a new deal means he’s got a chance to redo the deal and potentially cash in on more guaranteed money if the upward trajectory of his career continues.
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Houston isn’t afraid to pay him now, and do a contract that runs out in five years and potentially rework it three or four years from now. That would be good for both the organization and Watson, as long as his star power grows.
There doesn’t appear to be a ton of snags or issues like what the Cowboys and Prescott are going through, and the Texans need to prove to Watson that they’re willing to give him the pieces he needs to succeed.
After all, they traded away two former first-round draft picks, Jadeveon Clowney and former Clemson star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, in the last two years. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to take fewer years and see how this plays out. Head coach Bill O’Brien is running the show as the acting general manager as well, so it’s all on him.
Watson is in the right spot to both make a ton of money and also get out of Houston if need be down the road.
It’s simply not a bad time to be a really, really good, potentially great, QB in this league. Mahomes’ record deal has only strengthened that notion.
