Odds and Ends: Run Game is Key to Clemson Covering at Wake Forest
No. 5 Clemson faces its first big test of the 2022 season.
After three weeks of being favored by at more than three touchdowns, and going 1-2 against the spread during that span, the Tigers are a 7.5-point favorite with a game total of 55.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, at Wake Forest, which hosts the ACC Atlantic Division showdown at noon.
Not only is it the first time the Tigers see a single-digit, but it's also the first true road game of the season. Clemson played Georgia Tech in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons, in Week 1. Truist Field in Winston-Salem, N.C., isn't known for a raucous atmosphere, but there are still challenges with playing away.
There's also the challenge of playing a top-25 team. The road to returning to Atlantic champ for Clemson runs through Winston-Salem. Even though the Tigers crushed the Demon Deacons 48-27 a year ago, Wake Forest won the division. There should be a high level of motivation for Clemson.
This is a team Dabo Swinney has never lost to in his head coaching career, a run of 12 consecutive victories. Wake Forest is 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, but only once have the Deacs been a single-digit underdog (2021). They haven't been favored during that span, and take out that one year and the average spread has been 25 points in those nine meetings.
Why has Clemson commanded such huge lines and why isn't this one higher?
Wake Forest enters the game 2-1 against the spread and comes off a 1-point victory over Liberty. Their other two wins are VMI and Vanderbilt, so this is also the biggest test for the Deacs. But they've proven to be a respectable program in the ACC, hence one of the reasons for a more respectable spread.
But the betting market has a hard time trusting this version of Clemson's offense. The Tigers rank 63rd in total offense and 26th in points per game, but that's way up from last season when they were among the worst scoring teams in the conference.
Still, there's a lot more confidence in this year's group right now, and last year, when there wasn't, they still put up over 500 yards and held Wake to 36 rushing yards.
That's been the key for the Tigers in the series and it'll once again play a huge role in whether or not they can cover a shorter number.
Clemson ran all over a porous Wake defense, racking up 331 yards on the ground in that game, and the Tigers can run it again this year behind Will Shipley, who rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries a week ago. The Demon Deacons have to prove it can finally stop the Tigers, but they couldn't contain Liberty, which had eight plays go for at least 20 yards last week.
Clemson, meanwhile, has had its own issues on the other side of the ball. That vaunted defense has given up 12 pass plays of 20+ yards. Wake Forest is going to get some big plays.
Can they turn them into points, unlike Furman and LT? The answer to that question likely determines the game-winner and who covers the spread.
The Tigers allowed 311 passing yards to Louisiana Tech, and the FCS Paladins converted 10 third downs, but Clemson is only allowing 14 points per game, thanks to five takeaways.
Wake is going to have to attack through the air and QB Sam Hartman, who is averaging 312.5 yards per game in two starts, because the slow mesh running plays that the Deacs utilize have struggled mightily against the big, aggressive Clemson fronts.
This year shouldn't be any different. Wake Forst is averaging 3.6 yards per play. The Tigers are allowing 2.4 yards per rush. If Hartman has to hand in the pocket or can't get the ball out quickly, a Clemson defensive line that was down three key players a week ago could make it awfully difficult for the Deacs to get under the number, much less end the losing skid.
Betting picks
Spread: Clemson
Total: Under
Best bet (1-2): We finally got one home last week with Shipley going over 77.5 rushing yards with ease, thanks to a huge second half. For the first time this season, Clemson has a spread that contains value. Even though it's gone up a half-point, losing a potential push with a 7-point win, it's too hard to pass up the team that's dominated the series. If Clemson's defense is healthy, it's too hard to pass up the history of shutting down this offensive scheme. And if confident QB DJ Uiagalelei and Shipley are the primary weapons, it's too hard to pass up backing the Tigers. Take Clemson -7.5.
Want to join in on the discussion? 100% FREE! Interact with fellow Tiger fans and hear directly from publisher Zach Lentz, deputy editor Brad Senkiw, recruiting analyst Jason Priester and staff writer Will Vandervort on any subject. Click here to become a member of the ALL CLEMSON message board community today!
