Path to Playoff Is Clear — Win
The No. 3 Clemson Tigers appear to be on their way to another appearance in the College Football Playoff.
However, unlike the 2016 and 2017 seasons that saw the Tigers absorb a loss and still make the CFP, this year appears to be significantly more clear-cut — win and you are in.
The one thing currently keeping the Tigers from having the luxury of being able to absorb a loss is strength of schedule.
It appears that with only three games, including the ACC Championship, the Tigers will not face a team that is currently ranked in the top 25.
According to teamrankings.com, the Tigers' chances of going undefeated are at 89.9% and Clemson has a projected final record of 11.9-0.11 — meaning the odds are better than not that they will finish with an unblemished regular season record.
In fact, teamrankings.com has the Tigers with a greater than 92% chance to win every game remaining on the schedule: Wake Forest at 99.1% and South Carolina at 92.8.
The Tigers also enter this week with the third-best chance of all teams to make the playoffs at 82% — behind only Ohio State and LSU — according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, which provides a “ … model … derived from the committee's past behavior in its rankings (both in-season and on selection day) throughout the first four years of the playoff system.
Even though the Tigers have only the third-best chance to make the playoffs, they are currently the team with the second-best chance to win their second consecutive national championship.
And through study of the committee, ESPN Analytics identified five key factors that determine each team's chance to reach the playoff.”
Those “five key factors” are strength of record (how much teams have accomplished), FPI (how good teams are), number of losses, conference championships and independent status.
All of that being said, the path to a fourth straight appearance in the CFP could not be more clear for the Tigers — win.
If they win, not only are they in, they are in with ease. But lose a game this season and the path becomes significantly more difficult than in years past.
