Projecting Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei's Numbers in 2021
D.J. Uiagalelei is a Heisman Trophy candidate, not just because he plays on the third-ranked team in college football.
The Clemson sophomore quarterback has the five-star pedigree, blue-chip weapons around him and an offensive scheme with a large sample size of high-level production.
Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have Uiagalelei second in Heisman odds at 11-to-1 odds, right behind Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler (+800).
While ultimately it's a popularity contest, there are a few needed elements to winning the top individual honor in college football, like posting huge, video-game-like numbers. So what is Uiagalelei capable of putting up in 2021?
First, let's take a look at his 2020 stats to work toward a baseline. That is a little tricky, however, because in eight of his 10 appearances, Uiagalelei came off the bench and played a minimal role behind starter Trevor Lawrence, the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
But in two contests, Uiagelelei started and played entire games with Lawrence in COVID-19 protocol. Against Boston College and Notre Dame, Uiagalelei threw for 781 yards, tossed five touchdowns and had no interceptions.
That's an average of 390.5 yards per game as a starter. Extrapolate that over 12 games, and it's 4,686 yards. Lawrence never threw for more than 3,665, postseason included.
How unlikely is Uiagalelei to repeat that in 2021? In the last 10 seasons, just four quarterbacks have averaged more than 390 yards per game. Two of them, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr, are NFL starters.
Joe Burrow, who had one of the best passing performances of the modern era in 2019, averaged 378 yards per contest that season.
So it's not likely that Uiagalelei rekindles that gaudy average for an entire 12-game season. After all, he was nursing a shoulder injury, and Clemson didn't run him much. Also, the run game as a whole wasn't very productive, so he had to rely on his arm.
Uiagalelei threw 41 and 44 passes in those two games. Lawrence averaged under 34 attempts on the season. However, Clemson could easily throw the ball more this fall with the passing game looking like the more reliable chain-mover.
With Justyn Ross back to headline a deep receiver room, along with potentially a running-back by committee approach early in the season, don't be surprised if Uiagalelei attempts more passes than Lawernce, who averaged just 28 passes per game in his career. However, he did throw 33.4 times per game last year.
One important variable to keep in mind is Clemson quarterbacks don't always play four quarters. There were games Lawrence was on the sideline in the second quarter because the Tigers were up so many points and the coaching staff wanted to bring other players along.
Uiagalelei's two starts involved tight games that went down to the wire, including the overtime loss at Notre Dame. Clemson will be favored by three touchdowns or more in most of their games after the opener against No. 5 Georgia, so it's hard to predict just how much he plays.
Based on all of the knowledge above, here's a guestimate on Uiagalelei's stats for the regular season:
Passing yards: 3,204 (267 per game)
Passing attempts per game: 30
Yards per attempt: 8.9
Passing touchdowns: 32
Interceptions: 6
Rushing yards: 350
Rushing touchdowns: 5
Final verdict: Based on those projections, Uiagalelei is going to flirt with 40 total touchdowns and reach it in the postseason if Clemson (very likely) makes the ACC Championship Game. He'll also throw for more yards than Lawrence did in any of his three regular seasons.
And the passing yards projection could end up being too low. It's impossible to know how many games Uiagalelei plays into the fourth quarter, but it should be more than Lawrence. However, Uiagaelei will eventually turn the ball over, even though it didn't happen last year. His good decision-making should keep his interception numbers low, though.
Rushing stats are extremely difficult to predict. We know Uiagaeleli, at 6-foot-4, 247 pounds, is more like a Tajh Boyd runner. He was used between the tackles a lot last year, but when he gets outside the pocket, Uiagaelei might rely more on his arm to throw down the field than Lawrence, who was quick to grab the easy yards with his legs.
At the end of the day, this might not be enough to win a Heisman, but it's certainly enough to lead Clemson to another huge season and a College Football Playoff berth. Plus, he would become just the fourth quarterback in school history to reach 30 TD passes in a season, joining Boyd, Lawrence and Deshaun Watson.
Factor in a deep postseason run, and Uiagalelei could be knocking on the door of a top-5 season in Clemson history.
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