Lawrence Remains Third in Heisman Odds, But Clemson QB Should be Frontrunner
Trevor Lawrence is going to win the Heisman Trophy.
While that was considered a "duh" statement in September, it's one that can be met with plenty of pushback these days. After all, he's currently third in Betonline.ag's list at +225.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is the favorite at +150 with Alabama QB Mac Jones right behind him at +175. The funny thing is, those were the same odds as last week, before Lawrence missed his second consecutive game while he completed COVID-19 protocol.
It's reasonable to assume that this week's developments might change those numbers, or even push Lawrence back in front, but that's not been the case. Fields won't be able to put up gaudy stats against Maryland this week. The Terps are having COVID-19 issues of their own and can't pass Big Ten guidelines to play the Buckeyes.
So that game is canceled, not postponed. There is no makeup week for that conference. Fields, at the most, can play eight games, and that's only if there isn't another cancellation that's out of his control.
Meanwhile, Jones is sitting on the couch as well after LSU had to postpone its contest against the Crimson Tide. That's a huge blow to Jones, who most certainly would've posted big passing numbers against a porous LSU pass defense that ranks 119th nationally. If that game isn't made up, and that looks like a daunting task since LSU already has to make up the Florida game, Jones would play the same number of games as Lawrence, who can compete in nine regular-season games and the ACC Championship.
So why does it seem like Lawrence is being penalized for missing two games while the other two QBs aren't seeing any dip? Well, for starters, "penalized" is not really the word to use here. The oddsmakers simply put out a number and let the public and the professional bettors have at it. Then the oddsmakers adjust based on the market and where they're getting the most action.
If Lawrence is still third and Fields is still first, that means folks aren't rushing out to bet Lawrence right now, and Fields is still holding firm in terms of money wagered.
While that's how that works, it doesn't mean Lawrence can't, or shouldn't, win the Heisman or that he isn't the most deserving player by December. He's going to accumulate more numbers, and if there's a rematch with Notre Dame, he'll get to play. That lone Clemson loss isn't on his record. Lawrence is still technically undefeated, and beating the No. 2 Irish in the ACC title game with Lawrence would further enhance his case as the top candidate.
Of course, many voters will have already placed their votes before that game. And if you wanted to ding Lawrence for not playing in Clemson's biggest game of the year, who will Fields face for his "Heisman moment?"
Would Indiana really be considered a marquee win? What about Northwestern in the Big Ten title game? Ohio State's shortened schedule simply isn't demanding. Lawrence's remaining regular-season games aren't either, but he already has a top-10 win over Miami, so the "competition" argument doesn't really favor Fields.
Jones actually might be more deserving than either when it's all said and done. The Tide should remain No. 1 the rest of the regular season, and Jones has the numbers worthy of a Heisman winner.
Ultimately, now is a great time to get in on Lawrence, who is healthy and ready to go Nov. 21 at Florida State. He's going to come back itching to prove something the final three (and likely four) games in what's likely his last season with the Tigers.
Bet on it.
By the numbers
- Trevor Lawrence: 70.7 completion percentage, 1,833 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 9.6 yards per pass attempt, 71 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 6 games played
- Justin Fields: 86.7 completion percentage, 908 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 10.9 yards per pass attempt, 57 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 3 games played
- Mac Jones: 78.5 completion percentage, 2,196 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 12.4 yards per pass attempt, minus-9 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
