#7 Duke vs. #3 North Carolina Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds Today, 2/3
Separated by just eight miles and a narrow four-win margin over the last 100 games: Duke - 52, North Carolina - 48, the Blue Devils visit Chapel Hill for a 6:30 PM ET tip in this year’s first meeting of the epic Blue Blood rivalry.
Duke enters the game #7 in the AP Top 25, coming off a 77-67 road win at Virginia Tech Monday night to cement solo control of second place in the ACC. North Carolina comes in ranked #3 and looking to bounce back from a shocking loss at Georgia Tech on Tuesday. The Tar Heels still remain atop the ACC as this was their first conference loss.
With the stakes for the next chapter in this bitter rivalry set, we are set to deliver our official Duke vs. North Carolina prediction and supporting analysis, with Duke vs. North Carolina odds and a sign-up bonus powered by FanDuel Sportsbook.
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DUKE VS. NORTH CAROLINA PREDICTION: Over 150.5 Total Points (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction for Today's College Basketball Game on ESPN
North Carolina fans are quick to remind the Cameron Crazies and all of Duke’s fandom that the Tar Heels ended legendary Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career with an upset victory in the 2022 Final Four in New Orleans, Louisiana. Just as well, Duke came back last year in the first season under head coach Jon Scheyer, defeating North Carolina twice, helping UNC become the first preseason #1-ranked team to miss an NCAA Tournament bid.
Too soon we forget these tidbits that often elevate this rivalry beyond the fantastic displays we consistently get on the court.
To this point, in 2024, Duke has somewhat managed expectations, staying highly relevant within the top 10, after major preseason National Championship buzz. Meanwhile, North Carolina has played like the team we expected to see last year, surging into the title contender discussion.
The first iteration of this year’s rivalry should be just another must-watch affair, and although these two teams align neck and neck on paper, and although Duke has won two straight in the Dean Smith Center, our official Duke vs. North Carolina prediction is North Carolina to pull away late for a victory in a high-scoring shootout.
Duke vs. North Carolina Picks & Best Bets Featuring Duke-UNC Over 150.5
To quantify our Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, we have Duke vs. North Carolina picks to satisfy your betting needs! First of all, and most importantly, our favorite play in this game is Over 150.5 Total Points (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Last year’s two meetings between these two squads were uncharacteristically low-scoring. But that makes sense, considering UNC’s disappointing campaign and Duke finding its groove in its first year without Coach K. This year, we see a return to fireworks, as seven straight meetings between these two, prior to last year, resulted in more than 150.5 total points scored.
Despite ranking 46th in KenPom defense last year, this year’s Tar Heels squad has completely bought in on the defensive end, ranking #4 in total KenPom defense. While the Tar Heels defend the paint well with a deep front line that excels at pulling down rebounds, the 29.9% allowed from deep is only in part due to stellar perimeter defense. Some teams have just shot the three very poorly against UNC. Georgia Tech didn’t, however, and the 45% clip from downtown helped them defeat Carolina by 1. Granted, two Carolina starters, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, combined to go 6-28 from the field, point guard Elliot Cadeau fouled out and they were in a look-ahead spot to today’s game.
Still, there are signs of regression to the mean with the Tar Heels’ three-point defense, and that should continue today against a Duke team that takes 31% of shots from deep and connects at a 38.7% clip (14th best in the country). We expect Duke veteran guard Jeremy Roach to stay hot from range after splashing four threes against Virginia Tech. Take Roach Over 12.5 Points (-130 at FanDuel). While Duke’s shooting prowess should keep them in this game for a while, helping to balloon the point total, the Blue Devils’ defense does not compare to Carolina’s (30th on KenPom). While Duke is consistent at pulling down defensive rebounds and defending without fouling, the lack of physicality possessed lends to quality looks allowed from deep and within the arc.
UNC veterans RJ Davis and Armando Bacot should have big games in their final game against Duke at home, pacing an offense that averages 90 a game at home, and one that scored 100 on a phenomenal Tennessee defense this year.
UNC’s defense should make Duke depend on hitting threes, while UNC should be able to score in a variety of ways, which should lead to outlasting Duke in the end. Kyle Filipowski is an uber-talented big for Duke, but Duke severely lacks depth and toughness in the frontcourt. Meanwhile, UNC has Bacot, Ingram, Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers all mixing it up and banging bodies down low. UNC should own the paint, so they should eventually own the game. Take UNC -4.5 (-102 at FanDuel) to close out our Duke vs. UNC prediction.
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Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Odds, Lines & Spreads at FanDuel
Here is the latest FanDuel Sportsbook Duke vs. North Carolina odds and lines concerning our Duke vs. North Carolina picks:
#7 Duke vs. #3 North Carolina - 6:30 PM ET on ESPN
- Point spread: Duke +4.5 (-120) vs. North Carolina -4.5 (-102)
- Money line: Duke (+150) vs. North Carolina (-182)
- Game total: Over 150.5 (-115) / Under 151 (-105)
- Jeremy Roach Points: Over 12.5 (-130) / Under 12.5 (+100)
A $102 bet on our Duke vs. North Carolina spread pick profits $100 if the Tar Heels win by five points or more. A $115 bet on our official Duke vs. North Carolina prediction (Over 150.5 Total Points) profits $100 if the two teams combine for 151 points or more. A $130 bet on our Duke player prop profits $100 if Roach scores 13 points or more.
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Probable Lineups for Duke vs. North Carolina Today, 2/3
Duke Starting Five:
- Tyrese Proctor
- Jared McCain
- Caleb Foster
- Mark Mitchell
- Kyle Filipowski
North Carolina Starting Five:
- Elliot Cadeau
- RJ Davis
- Cormac Ryan
- Harrison Ingram
- Armando Bacot
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