Duke picked fifth in Coastal by statistical model

The football analytics website Team Rankings has come out with its analysis of the 2019 season, and it's not good news for the Blue Devils.

Duke is picked to finish fifth in the Coastal by the Team Rankings model, with an expected win-loss record of 5.7 wins and 6.3 losses.

In conference games, the numbers say Duke will have 3.7 wins and 4.3 losses.

Duke is picked to finish behind Miami (5.5 wins), Virginia Tech (5.0), Virginia (4.5) and Pitt (3.8) and ahead of UNC (2.8) and Georgia Tech (2.4).

With an expected overall win total just below six, the Blue Devils are given a 52.4 percent chance of making a bowl game. Their chances of winning the ACC are calculated at 1.6 percent.

Duke has a 0.2 percent chance of going undefeated.

Nationally, Duke was ranked No. 54 by the model, just behind NC State and just ahead of Boston College.

The ratings take several factors into account. One of them is the strength of last year's team. Duke finished No. 47 in those rankings, just behind Ohio and ahead of Minnesota.

It also measures historical strength of the program. Duke is No. 58 there, just behind Colorado and ahead of Minnesota.

The Blue Devils fared poorly in returning strength (how much of last year's production returns to this year's roster). Duke was No. 116 there, behind Texas Tech and ahead of Troy.

The model looks at how much of last year's results were based on factors that can be attributable to luck, and that a team isn't likely to repeat from one year to another. Duke was No. 50 in luck, behind Toledo and ahead of New Mexico State.

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