Scripting an Upset: How Duke Beats Notre Dame

The last time Duke traveled to Notre Dame, a young Daniel Jones helped lead the Blue Devils to a comeback, erasing a 14-0 deficit on the way to a 38-35 upset win.

The last time the two teams played, at Wallace Wade Stadium last year, the Irish were the team to put up 38 points, rolling to a lopsided blowout of the Blue Devils, 38-7.

With Duke headed to South Bend for Saturday’s season opener, the key seems obvious: The Blue Devils need to do what they did in 2016 and not what they did last November.

But what does that mean, specifically? Here’s a look at Duke’s path to victory on Saturday.

Control the ball: In 2016, Duke gained 24 first downs and converted 6-of-14 on third down. As a result, the Blue Devils had more than 30 minutes of possession time, keeping Notre Dame’s offense off the field and helping keep Duke’s defense fresh.

Last year, Duke was 3-of-16 on third down and had just 10 first downs for the game. The Blue Devils had four straight three-and-out possessions in the first half and seven for the game, leading to a near six-minute loss in the time-of-possession battle.

With Chase Brice taking snaps and David Cutcliffe calling plays, the Duke offense has the potential to be significantly upgraded over last year’s. The Blue Devils will need to keep the ball, control the tempo and keep its own young defense off the field.

Get a boost from special teams: In both games, Duke was able to get a spark in the return game. Damond Philyaw-Johnson had 122 yards of kickoff returns last season, beginning his November coming-out party that culminated with a two-touchdown day against Wake Forest two weeks later. In 2016, Duke fell behind 14-0 and appeared on the brink of a knockout when Shaun Wilson returned a kickoff 96 yards for a score.

Stop the run: Duke’s defense is deep and strong on the edge, with Chris Rumph and Victor Dimukeje, and strong in the back with corners Mark Gilbert, Leonard Johnson and Josh Blackwell and an equally experienced group of safeties. Up the middle, however, the Blue Devils have some concerns. Four of the six players on the depth chart at tackle are freshmen. Three of the five linebackers are also freshmen.

Notre Dame believes it will be able to run the ball this season, so expect the Irish to hit the Blue Devils’ soft middle. Notre Dame averaged 6.9 yards per carry on the ground last season, led by 139 yards from quarterback Ian Book. The Duke pass rush will need to contain Book and bring him down when he cuts and runs, while the interior and linebackers will need to hit their assignments on classic run plays.