FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: North Dakota State at No. 3 South Dakota
South Dakota stunned North Dakota State in an upset win earlier this season. The Bison are 0-2 on the road in the quarterfinals, while South Dakota is making the first quarterfinals appearance in school history this weekend.
The winner of this game will advance to face the winner of No. 2 Montana vs. No. 7 Furman in the semifinals of the FCS Playoffs.
2023 Predictions Record: 84-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
North Dakota State (10-3) @ South Dakota (10-2)
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. CT (ABC)
Line: North Dakota State (-6.5)
Series History: North Dakota State leads 58-27-2
Key Players: South Dakota
Aidan Bouman (QB): 174 for 258 (67.4%), 2,352 Passing Yards, 14 Passing TDs, 4 INTs
Travis Theis (RB): 172 Carries, 808 Rushing Yards, 4.7 YPC, 6 Rushing TDs, 122 Receiving Yards
Carter Bell (WR): 47 Receptions, 829 Receiving Yards, 17.6 YPC, 5 Receiving TDs
Brock Mogensen (LB): 109 Total Tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 Sack, 1 INT, 4 QBHs
Myles Harden (CB): 51 Total Tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 INT, 6 PBUs
Brendan Webb (DL): 42 Total Tackles, 11 TFLs, 9.5 Sacks, 4 PBUs, 6 QBHs
Key Players: North Dakota State
Cam Miller (QB): 186 for 253 (73.5%), 2,321 Passing Yards, 17 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 640 Rushing Yards, 12 Rushing TDs
Zach Mathis (WR): 44 Receptions, 629 Receiving Yards, 14.3 YPC, 6 Receiving TDs
TaMerik Williams (RB): 105 Carries, 657 Rushing Yards, 6.3 YPC, 7 Rushing TDs
Cole Wisniewski (DB): 79 Total Tackles, 2 TFLs, 6 INTs, 5 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble
Jave Kava (DL): 44 Total Tackles, 13 TFLs, 7 Sacks
Dylan Hendricks (DL): 39 Total Tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 6.5 Sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble
South Dakota utilized an explosive first-half performance to defeat North Dakota State, 24-19, earlier this season. The Coyotes only recorded 269 yards of total offense but exploded for over 7.0 yards per play against the Bison defense, including two touchdown receptions by wide receiver Carter Bell.
North Dakota State enters this game on a four-game winning streak, including an impressive road victory over Montana State in the second round last weekend. Despite a poor performance from Cam Miller, running back TaMerik Williams recorded a season-high 162 yards against the Bobcats.
The Bison are going to lean on the rushing attack as North Dakota State averages 244.7 yards per game, which ranks No. 1 among playoff teams. Quarterbacks Cam Miller and Cole Payton both offer explosive options to pair with Williams in the backfield as both quarterbacks have 10 or more rushing touchdowns this season.
Miller has been excellent this season despite his season-low 66 passing yards last weekend. His performance has continued to improve as sophomore wide receiver Eli Green (663 Receiving Yards) has emerged as a true playmaker for the Bison.
The X-factor in this game could be the improvement of the North Dakota State pass rush. Jake Kava and Dylan Hendricks lead a unit that has recorded two or more sacks in six of the last seven games of the season. In the first matchup, the Bison failed to record a sack and only forced three negative plays against South Dakota.
South Dakota may not fill the box score with impressive statistics, but the Coyotes are efficient and control the tempo of the game. The Coyotes only ran 38 total plays in the first matchup against the Bison but made the most of their opportunities with the ball.
Quarterback Aidan Bouman does an excellent job at distributing the ball to his playmakers. Wide receiver Carter Bell and tight end Carter Galbreath (579 Receiving Yards) can both create separation in one-on-one matchups, which allows Bouman to consistently move the ball down the field.
A key for the Bison will be forcing South Dakota to be one-dimensional, which was an issue in the first matchup. The Coyotes have a loaded running back room, led by Travis Theis but the emergence of Charles Pierre Jr. (443 Rushing Yards) and Nate Thomas (392 Rushing Yards) takes the room to the next level.
The Coyotes are holding opponents to only 3.9 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per pass this season. The key to this defense is to limit explosive plays and prevent touchdowns in the red zone. Teams have been able to move the ball down the field, but have struggled to finish drives against the Coyotes. Linebacker Brock Mogensen is the leader of the defense, but the defensive line is loaded with playmakers including Nick Gaes who missed the first matchup this season.
This game is expected to be one of the most competitive games of this weekend. The Bison have seemed to find their rhythm over the past four weeks of the season and will be a tough team to defeat twice in one season. I expect Cam Miller to rebound this weekend against the Coyotes and the Bison will make enough plays late to escape with another road win this postseason.
Prediction: North Dakota State (24-20)
