How Can Florida Basketball Prepare for the Future to Close 2022-23?

How can the Gators reconcile the 2022-23 season and beyond after seeing their bubble get popped? By preparing for the future.

Photo: Gators coaching staff; Credit: Zach Goodall

Florida’s metaphorical bubble that it sat on for NCAA Tournament contention popped after shrinking seismically following Colin Castleton’s broken hand diagnosis last Wednesday.

Dropping their final Quad I win opportunity in lackluster fashion against Arkansas, the Gators are now buried in a stacked SEC with no remaining chances to claw themselves out of the hole they’ve dug themselves. 

That realization will inevitably send UF back to the drawing board for how to approach next season. Devising that plan now, and making adjustments to adhere to the important future, could pay dividends for head coach Todd Golden and his staff as they reach the first crucial point in their tenure.

What are three steps needed to take to finish out the regular season, into the postseason and before the 2023-24 campaign starts to ensure the program’s trajectory is sloping upward?

All Gators will take a look at the near, intermediate and relatively distant future of Gators basketball with the calendar for the sport reaching its close for some.

Focus on the immediate future

In the short term, handing the keys of the team over to promising true freshman Riley Kugel will be a crucial stepping stone to equip next year’s team with skill and experience offensively. He’s recently witnessed a notable uptick in production, averaging 15.5 points on 53.3% shooting from the floor over the last four games after taking over as a full-time starter on Jan. 25 against South Carolina.

His ability to create shots and find lanes to the bucket off the dribble bodes well for the Gators' offense without a clear-cut No. 1 offensive option in the mix anymore.

We started to see that shift on Saturday against Arkansas.

The new-look Florida offense showed a lot of promise in its ability to hunt easy rim twos. Kugel, Kyle Lofton, Alex Fudge and Will Richard each benefited from the offense shifting to a guard-centric style that presents a heavy dose of dribble drive. That differed from the top of the key pick-and-roll system that was in place to give Castleton free lanes to the rim or consistent low-block touches.

Three of those four scorers can return to the program next season, serving as a building block of promise for the unit to improve from an experience standpoint.

Frequent ball movement along the perimeter to open up slashers along the baseline will remain prominent in Kevin Hovde’s scheme.

The slight shift worked in the first half, giving the Gators a needed boost to create an early lead in Fayetteville, but the momentum fizzled out as the Razorbacks forced Florida to take shots away from the bucket.

Per usual, that didn’t bode well for the poor shooting squad.

That’s why it will be imperative to rely on a piece like Kugel to find shots near the bucket and relieve the stress that comes with relying on how the three-point shot is falling.

Finish 2022-23 strong

After basically being eliminated from NCAA Tournament contention, Florida is en route to its second-straight NIT appearance. The invitational will give the Gators a chance to finish the year strong, which would help erase the poor taste that sits in their mouth after losing five out of six games while sitting on the bubble.

To end this season, now without its top dog, Florida’s goal will be to compete at a high level in the NIT to surpass its second-round exit a year ago.

Even in a campaign that brought a daunting schedule — rated as the 18th toughest schedule (holding a +9.06 adjusted efficiency margin) and 47th toughest (+4.58 AdjEM) out-of-conference stretch in college basketball, according to KenPom.com — and numerous unforeseen obstacles to throw the stage of the roster into flux, showcasing improvement under the new coaching staff is an essential element to laying the foundation.

That’s been done to some regard in terms of style, given the strong defensive prowess the unit has displayed throughout the year, but not to an extent to have it translate directly to on-floor accomplishment. It’s a significant component to eventually instill a culture of winning, but doesn’t present enough in year one to justify the year being a success.

Golden knows that after setting tournament-level expectations in the preseason, albeit without the realization of exactly how troublesome the year would be in nearly all facets.

UF should receive one or two home games in the NIT if it’s able to pile together some victories through early Matches.

Three Quad II and one Quad III games remain on the regular season schedule. The Gators are 8-2 in such games this season.

Florida can still make amends for a disappointing season under a year-one head coach.

Once again this season, the door is cracked open. The Gators just have to walk in it after shutting it on themselves consistently in 2022-23. 

Gear up for Offseason Shopping

The offseason path is simple, utilize the portal to find immediate plugs.

It’s the formula the Gators used when the Golden and Co. first arrived, one that sufficed but didn’t offer the drastic turnaround many expected — a display of the fanbase’s impatience to produce a winning product — following the end of the Mike White era.

This time around, Florida’s movement in the open market is critical.

The transfer portal has quickly become a sustainable platform for roster building, as seen by Baylor’s success just two seasons ago.

Recruiting out of the high school ranks is important — and an area that has gone under the radar with the new staff outside of a few frontcourt additions in the 2022 and 2023 cycle — but not nearly as vital as it was five years ago. As a result, compiling the right pieces to assume immediate playing time via the transfer market could be what elevates the Gators next season.

Stacking length and defensive efficiency at the two-through-four spots in the first offseason was a quality start to the talent acquisition process. However, there is more to be done beyond the wing positions.

Securing a point guard to operate the floor while simultaneously presenting a scoring threat of his own to fill in for Lofton and finding a talent big to replace Castleton are 1-A and 1-B in terms of priority.

A firm number two, which could even be an option 1-C given the offensive stagnancy in a unit that earned raving reviews this offseason, is to supply the unit with capable, decisive shooters from the perimeter.  

The offense Florida ran this season has the propensity to create open looks on kick outs beyond the three-point line, but an inability to knock down shots has severely inhibited the offense’s effectiveness.

Anyone they bring in will join frontcourt members Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon as new additions to the unit this offseason.

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