Florida Gators a Major Turn-Around Candidate After Defying Odds in 2024

Riding high after a four-game winning streak combined with retaining much of its talent from 2024 and adding new talent the following offseason, the Florida Gators are in a position to be a contender in 2025.

Florida Gators offensive lineman Austin Barber (58) pulls in Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) as the Gators celebrated at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The Gators defeated the Tigers 27-16. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun] | Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Florida Gators defied all odds by surprising fans, teams and analysts alike when they finished with an 8-5 record and a 33-8 victory over the Tulane Green Wave in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Many analysts had the Gators winning as little as four games during the 2024 season, and they were poised to be almost right after Florida trudged to a 4-5 record midway more than halfway through the season. However, a four-game winning streak with two wins over ranked opponents gave the Gators its first eight-win season since 2020.

Heading into 2025, they could amass even more wins with the squad they are fielding. ESPN's Bill Connelly looked at different things that helped determine the amount of ‘luck’ each team had in 2024.

Here is where Florida stands according to those standards. 

Turnover Margin

The first thing that Connelly looked at was the turnover margin the Gators had throughout the season. The Gators ranked 89th overall when it came to the expected turnover margin versus the actual turnover margin. The Gators were expected to be a positive 8.0 when the actual turnover margin was 6.0 giving them a -2.0, which is average in comparison to say the least. 

The Gators had to deal with a switch at quarterback from veteran Graham Mertz to freshman DJ Lagway in the middle of the season, which meant that Lagway was learning on the fly even if he had played in every game to that point.

Even then, Lagway suffered an injury that took him out for over half of the loss to Georgia and forced him to miss all of the loss to Texas, leaving Aidan Warner to take the reins. Despite that, the Gators still managed to keep a positive turnover margin, which likely is the reason they were able to be so successful this past season. 

Close Games 

The Florida Gators only played in two in one-score games.

The first game came against the Tennessee Volunteers, where they lost in overtime, 23-17. The other came in the Gators’ string of four consecutive wins to end the season with a win over the Ole Miss Rebels, 24-17, to end the Gators’ SEC schedule.

The Gators were again around the average, going 1-1 in one-score games. 

Injuries 

Injuries aren’t something that anyone will ever want. However, you can always count on them showing up somewhere.

The Gators got bit in several places. Mertz, who had already missed a game due to a concussion, was lost for the season to an ACL tear during the Tennessee game.

His replacement, Lagway, picked a hamstring injury and would miss the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs and the game against the Texas Longhorns.

The Gators secondary was depleted halfway throughout the season with injuries to starters Jason Marshall Jr., Devin Moore and Aaron Gates, an early-season injury to Ja'Keem Jackson and a late-season injury to Cormani McClain.

Florida was ranked 132nd out of 134 teams for starters that started in all or missed just one game. Their ratio of players starting a game was 0.40, which was last of all Power Four teams. Only MTSU and Kent State had worse ratios in the FBS. 

Into 2025

Florida has the second-highest odds to have a major turnaround, according to Connelly, with only Auburn having higher odds.

Many now expect the Gators to continue on this climb they started at the end of last year. The first step with rehab of starting quarterback Lagway, who dealt with a minor shoulder issue during spring camp. While his future of dealing with this injury is to-be-determined, his 2025 season is not in jeopardy according to Saturday Down South.

As Lagway continues to progress and learn at Florida, and after the Gators retained much of its talent from a year ago, the better it will be for the Gators, who will face 10 of the 12 opponents they faced in 2024 this year.