Florida vs. Florida State: Picks and Predictions
The Sunshine Showdown is back in Tallahassee for the first time since the 2018 season, as the Florida Gators (6-5, 3-5 SEC) are set to take on the No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (8-3 5-3 ACC) at Doak Campbell Stadium at 7:30 pm ET on Black Friday, November 25.
Florida enters the game as a 10-point underdog and threatened to lose control of a three-game winning streak over Florida State, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 57.5 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida vs. Florida State below.
Zach Goodall (6-5): Florida State 34, Florida 24
I'm disappointed by my predictions record this season, no doubt. Considering I viewed Florida as a 7-5-to-8-4-ish team in the preseason, I should have stuck to my gut at various points in the fall but admittedly fell for the hype a couple of times during Billy Napier's first campaign in Gainesville.
But this week's selection is simple. You can't convince me to pick Florida against a ranked team after the Gators lost to Vanderbilt. It just isn't gonna happen.
Florida State feels like everything Florida wants to be: A dynamic rushing offense with an efficient (and very mobile) quarterback to complement the ground game paired with a thriving defense thanks to the strength of its play off of the edge.
Florida has shown flashes on both sides of the football throughout the year with these qualifications in mind, but only put together one complete game all season long, against South Carolina two weeks ago. I can't bet on that happening again at this rate, especially against a superior opponent.
I envision a late score, how about from Anthony Richardson to freshman receiver Caleb Douglas, by Florida to make this game appear closer than it was across the first ~50 or so minutes. That's generally been the case in all of the Gators' losses this season, aside from being shutout in the second half against Kentucky in Week 2.
Before then, I think FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is going to have himself a day against the Gators, and it won't be easy for Richardson and the depleted UF offense to keep up.
Brandon Carroll (7-4): Florida State 31, Florida 27
Wow, is it really time for me to pick the regular season finale? Unfortunately, the answer to that question is yes.
As I say every year as a self-proclaimed college football stalwart, this year has flown by and now the Gators are set to head into Doak Campbell Stadium for the first time since 2019 on Friday.
When they do, they’ll be short-handed.
On defense, starting middle linebacker Ventrell Miller will be absent for the first half after a targeting penalty in the second half of Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt. That will present signifying holes for the nation’s 14th-ranked rushing team to exploit.
On offense, the Gators will be without five wideouts as Xzavier Henderson, Justin Shorter, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Marcus Burke and Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman are all sidelined with injuries.
Ricky Pearsall is also listed as questionable but is expected to play, according to Billy Napier. Tight end Keon Zipperer is also considered questionable.
While this could make Florida one-dimensional offensively, I think I offer a contrarian opinion for the lack of depth at the wide receiver position. This could actually present some positives as the Gators will be forced to cater to the aspect of their offense that has produced immensely throughout the year.
Not only should Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne be called upon frequently out of need, but quarterback Anthony Richardson can assume the heightened role as a rusher he has on and off again throughout the year.
This could help combat a fellow stout rushing attack by FSU on the other side of the ball as controlling the time of possession will be vital for this game.
However, the lack of legitimate weapons — despite the breakout game for Daejon Reynolds last week to uplift the depleted room — on the outside will limit Florida compared to a plentiful Seminoles team striving for their ninth win of the season.
Despite sitting in a position where a victory would catapult Florida into a critical offseason, the Gators' short-handed personnel and stout attack FSU has employed to this point in the year will make it difficult for that to become a reality.
I think Florida will be able to keep it a little too close for comfort against their in-state rivals due to the rushing game, but the Seminoles will capitalize on the lack of playmakers the Gators field to cap off their best season since 2016 with a 31-27 victory.
The Noles snap a three-game skid in the rivalry matchup.
CJ Clarke (8-3): Florida State 38, Florida 27
The Florida Gators are headed to Tallahassee (Fla.) on Black Friday to take on the in-state rivals Seminoles less than a week after a disappointing loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville (Tn.).
The Gators currently sit at 6-5 on the year and need this one to try and stay above .500. On the flip side, Florida State comes into the game at 8-3 riding a four-game win streak where they have handily beaten each of those opponents. The Seminoles look to be playing their best football of the season and are a much-improved team from a year ago.
Jordan Travis has made strides as a QB and is taking good care of the football; Trey Benson has been a stud for the Noles' rushing attack and their 6-foot-7 monster on the outside Johnny Wilson has been unguardable at times this year.
In contrast, the Gators will be without two of their top three receivers in Justin Shorter and Xzavier Henderson, and the third, Ricky Pearsall, is going into the game banged up but expected to play. And their defensive leader, LB Ventrell Miller, is ineligible for the first half due to a targeting penalty from last week.
On the bright side, the Florida rushing attack will be at full strength with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne to go along with Anthony Richardson who will need to use his legs more in this game.
Florida will need to lean on the run against FSU due to the lack of depth at the WR position, but will they be patient enough to stick with it if they get behind early? At the end of the day, with the Gators being as banged up as they are and the Noles finally getting healthy, I think the Seminoles will be too much for the UF to handle.
And for that reason, I have FSU winning this one.
Chris Thornton (3-1): Florida State 31, Florida 20
Chris Thornton joined All Gators' prediction story in Week 10
An unfortunate two-game stretch to end the season for the Gators. A lost opportunity at Vanderbilt and a bitter loss against the in-state rival Seminoles. However, I don't think it will be an absolute beatdown.
I can't tell you when and for how long but at some point in this game (outside of the very beginning), this game will be good and competitive. It feels like a third-quarter collapse type of game. The Gators are down a small handful of receivers and the defense has proven to continue to be unreliable from week to week.
Expect a strong performance from Anthony Richardson. Despite everything around him, he's remained the anchor of the offense and this feels like an occasion he will show up for. A strong performance on a national stage.
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